Major Platform Shifts Happening Ahead of Q4

Your Weekly DTC Industry Roundup

Another week in the DTC world, and the landscape keeps shifting beneath our feet.

Here's everything you may have missed from the ecommerce trenches over the past week or so:

• AppLovin just announced they're opening the floodgates October 1st … but there's a catch
• The truth behind 2025's best and worst ecommerce P&L's
• Amazon quietly fired back up their Google Shopping spend after a mysterious month-long pause …
• Brands pull back on discounts (and consumer sentiment is recovering faster than expected)
• Plus the key signals every brand needs to watch heading into Q4

Let's dive in …

Platform Updates

AppLovin Opens the Gates (With Major Strings Attached)

AppLovin just dropped some major news that's flying under the radar.

After being closed to new advertisers since June, they're reopening October 1st. But here's the twist … it's referral-only through verified partners. No more GMV limits, international markets go live, and they're rebranding the whole platform to "Axon."

Oh, and that $10K ad credit? Now it's a $5K match program because they want to see you put some skin in the game first.

With Q4 approaching and Meta getting more expensive, this could be your chance to diversify before everyone else catches on.

See more details here

Ecommerce Finance

The Truth Behind 2025’s Best & Worst Ecommerce P&L's

In this episode of Taylor Reacts, Taylor Holiday sits down with Mehtab Bhogal (CEO of Carta Ventures), Drew Fallon (CEO of Iris), and Jacob Becker (Head of Education at Finaloop) to crack open the P&Ls of real nine-figure ecommerce brands.

Forget the hype, this is a raw look inside the numbers. From $100M brands printing 30% margins to seven-figure stores barely breaking even, the group uses Taylor’s Four Quarter Accounting framework to reveal why some companies thrive while others bleed cash.

We dig into:

• What a “perfect” ecomm P&L looks like (and why CAC leverage + lean OPEX is the playbook)
• The silent killers eating profit: bloated payrolls, in-house fulfillment, and rent-heavy OPEX
• How early-stage brands should think about growth vs. cost-cutting
• Why product pipeline, not just marketing, solves CAC and seasonality issues
• The real debate: is DTC a channel … or a business model?

If you’ve ever wanted to see behind the curtain of ecommerce finance — and learn how to design a brand that prints cash — this episode is essential viewing.

Watch the video

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Platform Intel

Amazon's Google Shopping Mystery Deepens

Amazon turned their Google Shopping ads back on after exactly one month of radio silence.

All international domains are active again, but they're still completely dark in the US market. This lends serious credibility to the theory that it was a deliberate marketing test rather than some budget issue.

The question: What did they learn during that blackout period, and what does it mean for everyone else fighting for Google Shopping real estate?

See more here

Data Insights

Labor Day Recovery Hopes as Efficiency Takes a Hit

The latest DTC Index data paints a mixed picture heading into Labor Day weekend …

Revenue is up +3.62% YoY, but it's coming at a cost. Spend jumped +9.75% while aMER dropped -7.15%, meaning brands are paying more for each dollar of revenue. New Customer Revenue is only up +1.93% despite the increased investment.

July showed wild swings … ending strong with New Customer Revenue up +13.01%, but the middle of the month was brutal at -6.82% YoY.

The discount playbook might be losing its punch. Brands pulled back from 10.27% to 10.00% average discount rates, possibly due to tariff pressures squeezing margins or simple discount fatigue among consumers.

But here's the bright spot: Consumer sentiment is trending toward spending over saving, and purchase intent for the future remains solid.

The question is whether this optimism translates to a Labor Day recovery this weekend.

Unlock full data

Podcast

A Live Demo of How to Forecast Your Q4 Against Tariffs

In this episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday dive deep into the practical use cases of Spend & aMER forecasting models … powerful tools that help brands set budgets with clarity, not guesswork.

Taylor walks through real examples, showing how these models adjust for changing costs (like tariffs) and how gross margin shifts ripple through your entire P&L, media plan, and growth strategy. They also unpack why Black Friday/Cyber Monday cohorts often underperform long-term, and how understanding lifetime value can help you spend smarter, not harder.

You’ll learn:

• Why changing gross margins completely alter your revenue potential
• How to reset budgets when tariffs or duties impact COGS
• The surprising long-term weakness of Black Friday customer cohorts
• How to model incremental spend and know when every new dollar turns negative
• Why forecasting isn’t about prediction—it's about clarity and action

Watch now

Final Thoughts

Three Things to Watch as We Head Into Q4:

The AppLovin reopening creates a rare opportunity for brands willing to move fast. With referral-only access and international expansion, early movers could secure positioning before the platform gets saturated again.

Amazon's selective Google Shopping strategy suggests they're playing a longer game than most realize. Their willingness to stay dark in the US while spending internationally points to some serious strategic shifts happening behind the scenes.

The discount pullback trend in the DTC Index isn't just about margins … it's a signal that consumer behavior is normalizing. Brands that can drive growth without heavy discounting will have a massive advantage heading into Q4.

Bottom line: The playing field is shifting faster than most brands can adapt. The winners will be those who recognize these patterns early and adjust their strategies accordingly.