The Truth About Meta Performance Before Black Friday (Stop Pulling Spend!)

[00:00:00] Luke Austin: It's like Cyber Monday is like a microcosm of the whole thing that takes place over the course of November, actually, which is you are, you're holding, holding from an efficiency standpoint and even revenue volume standpoint, the day looks rough for most of the day. And then you hit that mid-afternoon, early evening hour and you see that bump and that increase. And if you don't hold the volume. If you don't hold down, you are going to leave, you're going to leave demand on the table. And Cyber Monday is like a microcosm of like what Tony's talking about for the month of November as a whole, which is you have, we have forecast, we have a target, we're pushing towards the volume expectation for the month, and we know that's going to be realized in the, in the last few days of the month.

[00:00:46]

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[00:01:28] Richard Gaffin: All right. Welcome folks to the D two C hotline. This is your direct connection to hot Takes, to Cold Truth to real e-comm advice from the best in the biz. I'm your host, Richard Gaffin. Call or text eight six six D two C 2 2 6 3 to get your burning e-comm question answered. Again, that's 8 6 6 3 8 2 2 2 6 3. You can leave us a voicemail. You can shoot us a text, ask us whatever is on your mind. D two C wise, our operators are standing by and speaking of which. We got both of our operators here coming in live from CTC studios in Costa Mesa, California. We have Luke the Weatherman, Austin, Luke, what's going on man?

[00:02:03] Luke Austin: It is, it's stormy out there early November. A lot of anticipation heading into. The back half. Yeah. Figuratively. The, the weather's great. The weather's great,

[00:02:14] but the, but the eCommerce,

[00:02:16] Tony Chopp: I looked outside. I was like,

[00:02:18] Richard Gaffin: yeah.

[00:02:20] Luke Austin: the, the inside, the on the inside,

[00:02:23] that's what we're all, that's what we're all feeling, ramping up into the BFCM anticipation.

[00:02:28] Richard Gaffin: right. Of course. And then of course we have Mr. Tony Chop, the chopper himself, who's our VP of Paid Media here at Common Threat. Tony, what's going on? Mans

[00:02:35] Tony Chopp: Nice to see you both. I, I thought Luke was talking about actual outside weather

[00:02:39] and I looked outside. It's not stormy Southern California seventies, but yeah, it

[00:02:45] Luke Austin: Okay, we've got a mar, the mar, the marine layer was, the marine layer

[00:02:49] was pretty, was pretty heavy this morning. So yeah, that we had, we had to deal with that a little bit.

[00:02:55] Richard Gaffin: Okay, so that's bad weather for Southern California. Okay? So it's stormy outside and it's stormy inside in our hearts right now as we approach BFCM. So, here's how this works. We get questions from our listeners. We get questions from our admission members, and we ask them to these two experts. And obviously because the storm of Black Friday, cyber Monday is as we record the Samir to an. Two and a half weeks away. Let's say maybe three if we wanna feel generous to ourselves. So it's coming right down the pike. And so obviously we have questions around BFCM, so I'm just gonna get straight into them.

[00:03:27] The first one I thought was kind of an interesting one from an admission member, which was how do you all suggest, I think about performance in these couple of weeks leading up to Black Friday, cyber Monday? are you guys looking for in terms of efficiency? In your Meta Ads account, and to give a little bit of extra context, he's also asking around questions about, is Black Friday Cyber Monday coming early this year?

[00:03:49] Should I be running more stuff right now? But so the general question then is what? How do we think about performance in these weeks, weeks leading up to BFCM?

[00:03:59] Tony Chopp: so this is like an interesting question. We've been, we've been tangling with this recently, and I, I think there's a co there's a couple things that are popping out for me that I, I think are, are pretty interesting. So, the, the first thing that we've been doing for our accounts is comparing the difference between sales reported in a seven day click window and meta brought back the ability to look at reporting in a, in a 28 day click window.

[00:04:23] So it's ki it's kind of annoying. You can only get to it in the, in the ads ui. You can't, you can't get to it in the reporting or or anything else. So, so it's a bit manual to sort of tease the data out. But what, what we've been doing. Is looking at all of our various accounts and looking at the difference between the conversion value that's reported in a seven day window, and then conversion value that's reported in a 28 day window.

[00:04:48] And the difference between those two is essentially the value of the conversion from day eight to 28. Okay. So it's the, it's the total, the total pie. What, what we found is a, is a pretty interesting pattern that makes a lot of sense. So. For the most part, if you wanted to use a a heuristic approximately 80% of the value is captured within that seven day click window, and approximately a 20% of the, the total value is gonna be captured in that 28 day window.

[00:05:21] What's interesting about this is. We, we have this, this other heuristic that we use when we're talking about incrementality measurement. And when we measure the incrementality on a a meta campaign, a seven day click campaign, we get this reading of 120%. So. Lemme try to say this without confusing the crap out of everybody.

[00:05:44] The, these are two sides to the same coin, right? If we look at the ads reporting in the account on seven day click, and we, we think we're capturing 80% of the value. The, the flip side of that coin is if we look at the incrementality measure for for that type of campaign, and we say it's 120% incremental, those two things are like.

[00:06:09] Same. Same, but different. Right? So one way is looking at it, it's confusing to talk about, I, this is a bad podcast. I'm gonna get my language better. But they're, they're, they're essentially the same idea. So what what happens for us is like when we're buying media on meta, we're factoring in that incrementality percentage to our target setting.

[00:06:29] So, so one way to say it is we're, we're sort of already accounting for that. Okay. So if you're not using incrementality to set your targets, then a simple thing for you to go do is to look at the difference between the conversion value from a seven day click window and a 28 day click window.

[00:06:45] Understand the difference between those two and use that to adjust your targets down. Right. And that's effectively, you're, you're kind of doing a little bit of incrementality. You're not doing really incrementality testing, but you're, you're, you're arriving at a similar conclusion that. That we do now, the other thing that's popped out of this analysis is that that lag is even more pronounced during this moment in time as one might expect.

[00:07:11] So we've seen that lag in some of the accounts that we've analyzed shift by five, 10% sometimes even up to 15%. All that to say. What, what you want to do is get a good understanding of the baseline of how your account behaves between seven and 28 day click, and then you could even look at what happened last year for Black Friday.

[00:07:31] All of this in service of you. You have an opportunity to potentially be more aggressive with your targets for the next 18 days leading into this moment where a lot of the conversion value is actually gonna be captured over over the weekend. But Luke, I'd be curious what, what your thoughts are.

[00:07:49] Luke Austin: Yeah, we e even a conversation earlier today as we're looking at month to date pacing, looking at our. Yeah, looking at every metric, contribution, margin, revenue, ad spend, et cetera, that, that's what a lot of this boils down to right now is, uh, anticipating the big spike Flex Friday Cyber Monday and. Not holding back on the volume aggressiveness, leading up into it.

[00:08:15] It's like Cyber Monday is like a microcosm of the whole thing that takes place over the course of November, actually, which is you are, you're holding, holding from an efficiency standpoint and even revenue volume standpoint, the day looks rough for most of the day. And then you hit that mid-afternoon, early evening hour and you see that bump and that increase. And if you don't hold the volume. If you don't hold down, you are going to leave, you're going to leave demand on the table. And Cyber Monday is like a microcosm of like what Tony's talking about for the month of November as a whole, which is you have, we have forecast, we have a target, we're pushing towards the volume expectation for the month, and we know that's going to be realized in the, in the last few days of the month.

[00:09:02] And so being, everything that Tony's talking about is. It's sort of like the, we need to know what the edge is, right? Like what that is it the 5% is the 10%, is the 20% increase in the delayed attribution? What is that number? So that we can push all the way there because our month depends on us doing that right now, every day that we don't do that right now, we're gonna leave demand on the table in the future.

[00:09:25] So getting clarity on that relationship for. Each individual business, understanding what the delayed attribution effect is, understanding what the flow of the revenue is over the course of the days of November, just like we do it by hour for by Friday, cyber Monday. To get to the level of confidence to, to hold the line throughout the month on, on these days leading up to it is the most crucial thing because the, the, the, what what'll happen is the, it it'll be most natural to orient everyday's behavior and conversations around. Efficiency isn't looking good. This looks like it's off. Let's pull back. Should we adjust our plan? Should we rethink November as a whole? Actually, now, should we, and like you can do that spiral really easily if you don't have the context and clarity on, on these metrics for the, for the full month. So everything's downstream from that.

[00:10:17] Getting, getting clarity on what that looks like for, for your business. I think it's, I think it's paramount so you can spend the time focusing on other things. Make twice as many ads for Black Friday than you were planning to, right? Rather than spending the two hours sort of death spiraling against.

[00:10:29] It should be, throw our whole November plan out the window.

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[00:11:21] Richard Gaffin: Yeah. Um, so I was gonna like, so, so essentially to kind of combine what you two are saying, it's sort of, this is an opportunity to understand, if I'm understanding you correctly, Tony, this is an opportunity for you to understand what delayed attribution looks like to run this sort of pseudo incrementality test so that you have. The data you need to reassure yourself that you don't need to pull back on spend in these like next couple of weeks. So because like I have some understanding of what delayed attribution looks like through like, and, and as you test it sort of through the holiday period, you're going to have some sense, a better sense of like why you shouldn't be pulling back in like a poor efficiency day. Maybe I'm, I'm just trying to reframe what I heard, but like may maybe tease that out a little bit more.

[00:12:07] Tony Chopp: You got it. I, I think you actually, I actually think you nailed it. So, and, and part of the, part of the nuance of this conversation is like how meta reports conversion value and meta reports conversion value at the time of the conversion as opposed to the time of the click. So basically

[00:12:32] all of the, a significant amount. The media investment that you're making right now is going to convert on Black Friday and Cyber Monday

[00:12:41] Richard Gaffin: Right.

[00:12:43] Tony Chopp: and that pattern that, so that pattern is sort of always present. You do this analysis and you look at the difference between seven day and 28 day click conversion value, you're gonna see that that pattern is, is kind of always present.

[00:12:57] But that pattern is even more present during this moment in time. And you have an opportunity to go look at it in your own ad account to see like what's the normal pattern? Is it. 85, 15, is it 80 20? And what did Black Friday, cyber Monday look like last year? All of that leading to what Luke's talking about.

[00:13:17] And Richard, effectively what you said, which is,

[00:13:20] do we have, does the data, does the data give us confidence to hold the line at this moment in time knowing that the conversion value, a large chunk of the conversion value is gonna show up in this really, in this really tight window.

[00:13:31] Richard Gaffin: Yeah. Okay. Well, I think that makes sense. I think like in, in summary. idea here is hold the line, efficiency's not gonna look good right now. It's gonna look incredible at the end of the month. That's always how it goes. And I think like one of the refrains of our black, all Black Friday, cyber Monday content that we've ever made in the last, you know, five, six years that I've been doing this at least, is that Black Friday always works.

[00:13:51] It always functions basically the same way. And so this is like the opportunity or the moment this year, like every year you need to be holding the line in the same way that you were last year and the year before, that sort of thing.

[00:14:03] Tony Chopp: Well, I was just thinking, like, I, I'm trying to think of like if I have any anecdotal experiences from, you know, my last six or seven years doing this of, of like, oh man, we actually invested too much in November. And I, I can't think of any off the top of my head, but that, that's pretty anecdotal, but I think that's like the spirit of what we're getting at here where it feels tricky.

[00:14:23] Get smart with your mask, get smart with your data. Get smart with your investment. This isn't, this isn't a a mandate to go, like burn a bunch of dollars really, really stupidly, but it is a mandate to go, to go and get yourself oriented to your analytics, to, to get the confidence to hold the investment.

[00:14:37] Richard Gaffin: That's right.

[00:14:38] Luke Austin: Yeah. And then the only anecdote I have actually, as you say that to me, I was thinking and it's, it's it o overinvestment or not executing well against the plan as a result of needing to catch up dramatically because of not doing this. I can recall a few where it's, it's black Friday at five PST or six PST, and as we know, black Friday is the morning's bigger, right into midday than the evening hours. And the, the opportunity was underspent. There wasn't enough volume, there weren't enough campaign plans, et cetera. And so it's like. All the morning was so good, let's pummel spend, and then it's, you know, you have a, a lot more spend in the back half of the day, a lot lower efficiency, and you just missed it as a result of needing to play catch up because you didn't index as heavily early on as you needed to.

[00:15:24] Which is I think, yeah, Richard, kind of what we're all saying, right? It's like, make sure you don't leave the volume on the table early on because playing catch up is so challenging and that's, that's when, that's when you'll, look back and think, yeah, we, we left opportunity on the table. Then we try to play catch up and it doesn't, it doesn't work that way.

[00:15:42] Richard Gaffin: that makes sense. All right.

[00:15:43] Luke Austin: Okay.

[00:15:43] Tony Chopp: Yeah, you're, you're planting the seeds right now. Like right now, today. Today you're planting.

[00:15:48] Richard Gaffin: that's right. I was gonna say, this is a good, this is a good formula, a recipe for a regret free Black Friday hyperplane. So make sure you're in it right now. Okay, cool. So then so we on one other question here, because last week we kind of covered some Black Friday, like meta 1 0 1 was kind of like what we talked about this time we want, wanna talk about is this question which is, do you guys have any guidelines or rules for Black Friday Cyber Monday offer design? we've spoken around this before a little bit, but let's talk about some of the sort of core rules we have when we think about what let's say would offer structures maybe we suggest to clients during this time.

[00:16:27] Luke Austin: Simple Sitewide.

[00:16:33] Tony Chopp: Gimme another

[00:16:34] Luke Austin: Uh, I know I was trying to find it. I was trying to find the third s. Simple site

[00:16:39] Tony Chopp: Stacked stacking

[00:16:40] Richard Gaffin: Stacked.

[00:16:41] Luke Austin: stacking. Stacking. Yeah. Stackings. Interesting.

[00:16:44] Tony Chopp: Because I'm just kinda like coming off of like the, the consumer. The consumer expects the biggest discount on Cyber Monday.

[00:16:52] Luke Austin: Ooh. Cyber Monday. That's a, that's not an S, but alliteration

[00:16:55] Richard Gaffin: Yeah. Yeah. There you go.

[00:16:57] Luke Austin: Simple Sitewide. Simple. Sitewide Cyber Monday. And Cyber Monday indicates yes, that the stacking, the tiering of it into Cyber Monday.

[00:17:07] Good. That's.

[00:17:08] Richard Gaffin: the past, Luke, we've talked a little bit about like, black Friday should be your, how do, how do we frame this before Black Friday should be your, like splashiest deal or something, but like your best deal or your highest a OV day is gonna be Cyber Monday or something like that.

[00:17:23] Luke Austin: Yeah.

[00:17:23] So

[00:17:24] Richard Gaffin: difference there?

[00:17:25] Luke Austin: yeah, I think a, I think a, a cool way to approach Black Friday and Cyber Mondays to think about. Um, black Friday is going to probably be your best offer for the majority of folks, but Cyber Monday is going to be the best offer From a dollar dollar value perspective. It is gonna represent the most savings, but it may not be the like largest total addressable market offer depending on how you structure it.

[00:17:47] So an idea of what that could look like is Black Friday, you run 30% off site wide. But Cyber Monday you do a buy two get one free, right? or some, or some version of that offer where you're actually getting a higher dollar value off, most likely. Or maybe it's some BOGO with some threshold by, by one going 50% out, whatever it is.

[00:18:08] But like the, you see the point, which is like your A OV is going to be higher on Monday for sure. You're gonna have much larger orders and the dollar value that folks are gonna get off is gonna be higher because they're checking out with higher cards and they're getting. Um, but will someone, will the majority of folks actually check out with three or five or 10 year items?

[00:18:27] The majority will probably, is probably looking for that one or two things and that 30% off, but you're gonna get at sort of like a different, different pocket of the market in that way. And tie it to Tony's point, like you, there's an anticipation on something new on Cyber Monday, right? The, the sort of like. The urgency tied to it as well as the offer dynamic changing. So whether that's an additional free gift that you put into your purchase, a different offer tier that gets unlocked or just a different offer structure completely. I like the idea of this, like we're building, we're building throughout with urgency of a Black Friday.

[00:19:01] You have your offer that is the, that is like the best offer for the highest tam. And then Cyber Monday is your best offer in terms of highest dollar value savings.

[00:19:12] Richard Gaffin: Right. Tony does.

[00:19:15] Tony Chopp: Yeah, I, I, I really don't have anything to add, but I, I do, I do have something like totally different that. Taylor said last week in our, in our client weekly monthly client meeting that I thought, oh, it struck me as like the, the most interesting way to answer the question of how many emails do I send?

[00:19:32] And the answer is like, more, but. But his take was and Luke, I'm curious to hear your POV on this as well. He's like, it's real simple. Send to the full list and then export a list of all the unops and then send to them again and rinse and repeat over and over and over again. 'cause effectively what you're trying to do is get somebody to open an email and if they have an open, then you haven't achieved.

[00:19:54] And there you go.

[00:19:56] Richard Gaffin: Yeah.

[00:19:56] Tony Chopp: I just thought it was a really nice, like, simple heuristic for how to, like, how to send more emails.

[00:20:01] Richard Gaffin: Yeah. No, I think that's really smart.

[00:20:02] Luke Austin: I, I do think, yeah, I do think. Something interesting here though, which is like the, the simplicity of the offer is, is people, you wanna reduce the, the mental calories that, that it takes someone to digest sort of what the offer is. But there, there comes a point when, like there, especially if you launch your offer, like there's brands launching their offer on Sunday. Prior to Black Friday, right? Like it's running for five days, their main offer. Two, I think there is something to if someone hasn't responded in three days to the same offer with the same sort of messaging, finding a different way to, to attack that that subset of people through. Different messaging, framing it a different way, different products that you're sort of communicating the offer around.

[00:20:46] I think this is like, yeah, we have diverse ad creative toolkits, right? So we showed like 30% off with like this product and 30% off with product B. So it's like that, that probably helps. But going even a step further, like we're talking about having different offer tiers that unlock to where like, okay, the 30% off wasn't free.

[00:21:02] Maybe the buy two get one free. Or maybe this like ways to, okay, we saw how that pocket responded. We saw all the people. To who open the email. Or we saw all the people who clicked through the email who didn't purchase, right, that we're gonna actually position something different to, in that, in that way, and have a sequence around. There's like the layers of thoughtfulness here are, are never ending, of course, and, and nuance for each brand. But I think the simplicity's important get, like, it can't become too complicated where what we've seen. We, we've all seen the 12 days of Christmas, you know, deals where you have a new deal every day, and then you launch a new campaign on meta every single day to align with it and pause the other one.

[00:21:37] It's like they, they become nightmares or challenging for customers to follow along. They, they can be done well. I, I've seen some done well, but they, I typically become. O too over complicated, but like the, the three day, you know, the three sequence tiers where it's like day three, then day six, then day nine or whatever.

[00:21:54] Like, I think there's, there's definitely ways where the thoughtfulness to speak to customers in different ways to get at the most possible. It can be combined with the simplicity layer, but there has to be some connective tissue beneath it all, right? That sort of is like the, this is, this is the approach, this is the offer, this is how we're doing it, and then what we're doing is we're adding on or adjusting some of those things along the way to make it more appealing for folks.

[00:22:17] Richard Gaffin: Yeah, that makes sense. Yeah, so what I was gonna say is like the simplicity, the, the first and the second ask are. Essentially related, right? Like the idea that a site-wide offer is the easiest thing to digest for a customer. It's just anything I go find is gonna be 25% off, 20% off, whatever the case may be. Of course, it's like that's not always doable based on margins for various products, wherever you have to play with that. But the idea is that at the end of the day, simplicity should be the main theme. And if you have to build away from that for certain practical reasons, that's fine. As long as like at the end of the day,

[00:22:50] Luke Austin: Yeah.

[00:22:50] Richard Gaffin: not getting creative for the sake of getting creative.

[00:22:53] You're just like. Give them a great offer and just kind of tell them as much as you possibly can about it over the course of that time. So, okay, so I think that's our three S's, three S's simple site-wide and Cyber Monday,

[00:23:09] Luke Austin: Yes,

[00:23:10] Richard Gaffin: which I guess what we're getting at is that everything should be ramping up to that point.

[00:23:14] But yeah. Anything else you guys wanna add on this?

[00:23:17] Tony Chopp: I hope it comes as soon as possible.

[00:23:20] Richard Gaffin: Yeah. Yeah, I know, right? Can't get here soon enough. Can't be over. 'cause quickly enough. You know what I mean? That's how it goes every year. But, all right, gang. Well, I, I think it's time for us to take a little quick trip in a hotline hot take corner, and any hot takes for me beyond that, C is an SI guess, which is the one that we've already

[00:23:38] Luke Austin: That's, I don't know. I don't know how you get much hotter than that. C isn't. C can be an S,

[00:23:45] Richard Gaffin: I like it.

[00:23:48] Luke Austin: Any other, any other hot takes? That's a, that's a hot one. I mean, I'm not gonna, I'm not gonna lie, that's, that's up there. Yeah, I, I think like, here's what I'll, yeah. This isn't a hot take. This is more like me speaking to myself at this point in the month, which is the temptation can be. You look at your, a lot of people are launching their early bird sales, right?

[00:24:09] Their early offer is their early November launches at this point. And the temptation could be okay, based on the performance of this early offer, my November, it might be, I kind of know where my November is kind of land. It's kind of baked and maybe it's a good thing. It's a, maybe it's a negative thing.

[00:24:22] Maybe it's like somewhere in, in between that that's not the case. You can just do things and you can do things differently. And yes, takes it, it takes effort for sure. There's tight, tight timeline, but November is not baked. You got the majority of November left even despite what your early access offer is telling you. The world is your oyster. Let's, let's get it.

[00:24:45] Richard Gaffin: There you go, Tony.

[00:24:46] Tony Chopp: So, I mean, yeah, I wanna, thanks Luke. I needed that pep talk actually. The November is not cooked. It's only November 10th. What else? Hot take. Off topic slightly. meta's incremental attribution product, which I'm, I'm still super excited about is they released the opportunity to use ROAS or cost cap bidding to pair with this incrementality.

[00:25:09] Setting or this attribution setting. So, I think, I think that's gonna be, I think it's gonna be something that we're, we're gonna continue to be, I think they're gonna continue to make it more and more useful. And it like connects back to our conversation before, because we're talking about measuring seven day click windows and 28 day click windows and attribution.

[00:25:28] Pardon me. Geo hold out incrementality studies and I think if Meta gets this product right where they are programmatically attributing value to conversions in a way that's really different, I think it's gonna be really useful. So I encourage everyone to, to give it a shot and play with the new and now you can use it with the new sort of cost control methodology so you don't have to just burn dollars with highest volume.

[00:25:50] Richard Gaffin: I love it. So less of a hot take and more of a, Hey, here's something exciting coming down the pipe. Huh?

[00:25:55] Tony Chopp: Yeah.

[00:25:55] Richard Gaffin: Something like that. All right, cool.

[00:25:57] Tony Chopp: Yeah.

[00:25:57] Richard Gaffin: well, I, I'll leave us with with my non eCom hot take, which is that you should only be allowed to cr play Christmas music the week of Christmas. I'm a Scrooge in that way right after Thanksgiving's way too early for me, honestly.

[00:26:07] And then of course our designer Paul starts playing Christmas music like in July. So, those are two extremes, but I like to, you know, let's keep Christmas special. That's, that's what I thought.

[00:26:16] Luke Austin: Hmm.

[00:26:18] Richard Gaffin: So.

[00:26:19] Luke Austin: I like

[00:26:19] Tony Chopp: is putting up the Christmas decorations tomorrow. Richard, how do you feel about that?

[00:26:23] Luke Austin: No.

[00:26:24] Richard Gaffin: Oh, I don't like that at all. whatever. We'll check in next, next week. We'll tune in and see Tony's office.

[00:26:29] They're just absolutely decked with bows of Holly. But folks, I think that's gonna do it for us. Thanks again for listening folks. So. again, remember if you want your question answered on this very podcast, you can leave us a voicemail here, 8 6 6 D two C 2 2 6 3 or you can send us a text there as well.

[00:26:46] We might read your question on a subject or on a subsequent episode rather. So for Tony, the chopper chop for Luke the weatherman. Austin, I'm Richard, the Professor Gaffen. Take care everyone, and we'll talk to you next week. See ya.

[00:26:58]