How To Achieve Predictable, Profitable Growth with CTC's Prophit System

Tired of missing your forecasted growth goals?

In 2020, COVID promised “a decade of growth” in one quarter for ecommerce businesses.

Forecasting in COVID might as well have been the Riemann Hypothesis: an unsolvable riddle with no historical precedent.

Many brands set their forecasting expectations on YoY growth, linear models that only worked when the industry itself followed that path. The years since have made forecasting revenue and growth anything but simple or linear.

Still, after successfully driving billions in forecasted revenue for our clients every year, we’ve established an essential fact behind growing ecommerce businesses in any era:

You can’t grow profitably without a profit-focused operating system.

Unfortunately, most brands simply don’t have the time or resources to step back from the day-to-day and put the necessary structure in place.

That’s where we come in.

We’ve built the world’s best system for planning and executing profitable growth … and we want to implement it for your brand.

A decade in the making, the Prophit System combines quantitative analysis via data modeling with qualitative knowledge of your brand to produce a detailed plan that you’ll take to the bank.

The Prophit System: A Brief Overview

At its core, the Prophit System is about transforming forecasting and planning from mere data modeling exercises into powerful tools for execution.

The Prophit System provides a clear plan that aligns each action with the business objective, creating a harmonious and effective work environment.

It enables teams to quickly identify deviations from expected outcomes and adapt their strategies to stay on course. This agility is crucial in today's dynamic market environment, and it all starts with a growth map.

The Growth Map

Central to this system is the growth map, a comprehensive planning document that forms the foundation of partnerships with all of CTC's customers.

This map includes:

• A two-year P&L forecast
• Marketing calendars
• Creative concept logs
• Channel-specific media plans with targets
• Email and SMS spend plans

These elements create a clear framework for daily expectations across over 35 critical metrics, aligning each team member's efforts with the overall business objectives.

Statlas

The Prophit System's strength lies in its integration with our proprietary analytics platform, Statlas. This integration allows for the seamless execution of the system, providing daily targets for key indicators.

Teams can swiftly identify areas where they are off track and make necessary adjustments, significantly enhancing the likelihood of reaching their goals.

But, the Prophit System goes beyond traditional data analysis. With over 100+ Statlas reports, it enables rapid problem identification and action.

Team members are equipped with the insights they need to address specific challenges, from cohort-specific LTV issues to variable costs by SKU.

In fact, across over 4 billion in GMV, CTC has achieved forecasting accuracy to about 6 percent above target for an entire year.

This success is a testament to the refined process and excellent execution facilitated by the system.

Harnessing Data for Growth: Daily Insights with Statlas

Using the Prophit System to forecast daily targets, our growth strategists analyze and report on more than thirty-five key business metrics seven days a week.

Integrating your data with Statlas allows our team to analyze and course-correct for these metrics every day. Statlas can seamlessly integrate data from Shopify, Facebook, TikTok, Google Ads, etc.

Beyond platforms, Statlas also integrates cost data by SKU plus cost of delivery and all variable costs associated with getting the product to someone’s door.

Clients receive daily emails reporting on that data, plus actionable insights when any metrics deviate by more than 10% off-plan.

We don’t set a monthly forecast at the beginning of each month and wait till the final days to see how we did. Our team analyzes these daily and week-over-week trends, then executes to course correct.

Prophit System forecasts provide a real-time P&L to match what your brand can expect based on Statlas data from line item expenses down to EBITDA.

Using our data science team, we have also developed custom spend and aMER models based on the unique historical data from your brand. These models account for seasonality, discount percentage, marketing moments, cohort-specific inputs, and more factors to develop accurate regression models and expectations for any given month.

Monthly goals transform into daily targets with your marketing calendar and day-of-week modeling that allow us to forecast with confidence and rapidly course-correct as needed.

The Art of Profitable Creative Strategy

Our foundational belief is that good creative is more than just visually appealing – it brings a growth strategy to life and complements the media plan.

“If it doesn’t sell, it isn’t creative.”
— David Ogilvy

It’s not just about making media matter to the consumer; it’s about driving measurable business results, specifically profitable growth.

Creative strategy begins by diving into data and conducting an in-depth brand analysis to create the ultimate brief. This document merges high-level brand information, like key competitors and brand personality, with media essentials, laying the groundwork for future creative development.

It covers offers, angles, and the 'Four Peaks' – a yearly calendar planning system that identifies four key moments for revenue generation and growth throughout the year.

The next step involves planning out the marketing calendar, each month’s key marketing moments, and their direct connection to the media planners. This ensures the synchronization of creative concepts with the media plan.

Our growth, media, and creative strategists align on concept offers, audiences, angles, and more, ensuring each creative idea aligns with the unique media plan.

Each concept is defined as an intersection of three key elements:

1. Offer,
2. Audience, and
3. Angle,

Changing any element – offer, audience, or angle – creates a new concept, enabling a rapid, diverse range of creative expressions while maintaining strategic alignment.

The marketing calendar directs efforts in the concept log, while the ultimate brief grounds all activities in the brand’s essence and goals.

This holistic approach ensures that every creative endeavor is aligned with driving profitable growth.

Media Buying in the Prophit System: Strategic Planning Meets Precise Execution

Growth strategy and creative strategy all culminate with how our media buyers work within our operating system.

Every month begins with growth strategists completing cohort-specific forecasts, detailing daily revenue and aMER expectations to provide media buyers with monthly spend allocations and ROAS targets. These expectations are based on the marginal outcome required for each product SKU or offer.

Media buying best practices start with the ad account structure. At Common Thread Collective we’ve long talked about using a fully merchandised, cost-controlled ad account structure. Each SKU or product is associated with a specific business objective or campaign.

This approach allows for accurate spend forecasting, as media buyers estimate future spend and performance based on current campaign data.

Media buyers constantly assess campaigns to determine whether they need more volume or efficiency.

In a campaign where spend and ROAS outperform targets, there might be an opportunity to increase volume. Conversely, in cases where campaigns underperform, the focus shifts to tightening cost caps to improve efficiency.

Creative strategy plays a critical role in the success of our media buying through front-loading the ad account with numerous fresh ad concepts, especially at the start of the month.

This abundance of concepts ensures that media buyers have sufficient options to find and scale efficient campaigns while weeding out underperformers.

Your Pathway to Profitable, Predictable Growth

The challenges facing many ecommerce businesses right now require more than just traditional strategies and forecasting. The Prophit System offers a new way to navigate through the complexities of today's ecommerce environment with confidence and precision.

At the heart of the Prophit System lies a deep understanding that growth is not a mere chance occurrence but the outcome of meticulous planning and execution.

It isn't just about numbers and forecasts; it's about understanding the pulse of your business

The Prophit System aligns every strategy and creative effort with your core business objectives, and adapts swiftly to market changes.

From the growth map that provides a bird's eye view of your business trajectory to the integration of creative and media strategies, every element of the Prophit System is designed to put you in the driver's seat of your business growth.

With Statlas as your guiding star, navigating the ebbs and flows of ecommerce becomes less about guesswork and more about strategic decision-making.

In an era where change is the only constant, the Prophit System stands out as a revolutionary approach to achieving predictable, profitable growth.

Whether you're a budding ecommerce business or an established brand, the Prophit System can be your roadmap to success.

But don’t just take our word for it …

As you ponder on the future of your ecommerce business, consider the Prophit System not just as a choice, but as an essential partner in your journey towards sustainable, profitable growth.

Learn more about our process, or reach out directly to get started.