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Read, watch, or listen to the latest content from the Education team. This feed always updates with the most recent content released from the past ten days at Common Thread Collective.

In this episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday dive deep into the practical use cases of Spend & aMER forecasting models … powerful tools that help brands set budgets with clarity, not guesswork.

Taylor walks through real examples, showing how these models adjust for changing costs (like tariffs) and how gross margin shifts ripple through your entire P&L, media plan, and growth strategy. They also unpack why Black Friday/Cyber Monday cohorts often underperform long-term, and how understanding lifetime value can help you spend smarter, not harder.

You’ll learn:

  • Why changing gross margins completely alter your revenue potential
  • How to reset budgets when tariffs or duties impact COGS
  • The surprising long-term weakness of Black Friday customer cohorts
  • How to model incremental spend and know when every new dollar turns negative
  • Why forecasting isn’t about prediction—it’s about clarity and action
Show Notes:

In this episode of the Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday unpack the critical connection between forecasting models and creative production. Forecasting isn’t just about predicting numbers … it’s about building a marketing and creative plan that can actually deliver them.

Taylor explains why most forecasts fail: brands treat them like predictions instead of action plans. The team breaks down how to bridge that gap by tying financial models to the marketing calendar, identifying offer opportunities, and planning campaigns with excess creative capacity so you’re never scrambling when results fall short.

You’ll learn:

  • Why every forecast depends on your creative pipeline
  • How to identify bottlenecks that kill forecasting accuracy
  • The role of growth strategists vs. creative strategists in building clarity
  • Why true diversity in creative comes from multiple production sources, not one overworked designer
  • How UGC and creator networks unlock scale and resilience

The conversation closes with a segment featuring Yosh Chavan of Saral, who explains how to build predictable influencer systems that fuel the creative diversity today’s ad ecosystem demands.

Show Notes:

In this episode of The Ecommerce Playbook Podcast, Richard Gaffin and Taylor Holiday unpack why forecasting isn’t just about models … it’s about execution. They explore how the best brands combine data, marketing calendars, and disciplined ownership to create forecasts that actually hold up in the real world.

Drawing from billions in client data, Taylor explains why finance-driven forecasts often fall short, and how integrating qualitative planning and real-time execution makes all the difference. Together, they lay out the framework that separates accurate, actionable forecasts from guesswork.

You’ll learn:

  • Why finance-only forecasting fails in ecommerce
  • The three-part framework for accurate forecasting (Quantitative, Qualitative, Execution)
  • How to tie marketing calendars directly to financial models
  • Tactical steps to make your forecasts more reliable before Q4
Show Notes:
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