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In this episode of the State of the Ecommerce Industry brought to you by the DTC Index, we dive into the hot topics swirling around the ecommerce landscape. Join us as we dissect the noise surrounding Meta's performance, the impact of the Super Bowl, and the Valentine's Day shopping frenzy.

Our team of experts, including Jeremiah Prummer from KnoCommerce, Wyatt Mayhem from Cast Metrics, Yarden Shaked from Varos, and Steve Rekuc from Common Thread Collective, bring you exclusive insights based on extensive data analysis and industry expertise.

From uncovering gifting trends around Valentine's Day to evaluating the effectiveness of Super Bowl commercials for brands like Elf and Etsy, we leave no stone unturned in our quest to provide you with actionable insights.

But the burning question remains: Was Meta truly broken in February? Find out as we dive deep into the data and separate fact from fiction in this highly anticipated episode.

Show Notes:
  • Want an easier way to source UGC? Streamline your process with SARAL’s chrome extension: ⁠
  • The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at to ask us any questions you might have about the world of ecomm.

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[00:00:00] Taylor Holiday: Welcome back to another episode of the state of the industry report here brought to you by the DTC index. I'm joined as always by the four contributing partners of the DTC index. I'm gonna let them introduce themselves in just one second, but I know you were going to love this episode because we have been surrounded by chatter.

There is noise out there. Is meta broken? Did the Super Bowl make an impact? What happened with Valentine's Day? Is e commerce dying? going to find out right now and to tell us, are these four amazing gentlemen who are each going to explain who they are, what data they're contributing to remind you and give a little bit of insight into the kind of information they're going to provide you.

And I'm gonna kick it off with Jeremiah Premier, CEO of no commerce. Who are you and what is the data that you are presenting?

[00:00:45] Jeremiah Prummer: I'm Jeremiah Prummer, CEO of no commerce. We'll just start there. So we work with 3, 500 plus brands collecting, I believe last year it was 90 million questions answered on our platform. So lots of data. We are looking at a few specific data points in this report and each report to be very clear, fully aggregated, anonymized, disconnected from any individual person, any individual brands and looking at large data sets.

So I know we had some questions about that on the last episode. just want to be very clear about that, and none of this is actually merged with of the other data. We're all kind of coming at this from different perspectives and saying, okay, here's what we're seeing. How does that resonate with everybody?

What are we seeing that validates that challenges of that? And that's kind of the way that we're looking at all this data. So, yeah, that's what we do. And really excited for some of the stuff that we've got in this report.

[00:01:31] Taylor Holiday: And the man causing us all to hedge our data introductions Mr. Wyatt mayhem. 

[00:01:35] Wyatt Mayham: If you're mad it's because it's right, we have consumer spending data source for credit and debit card spending you know, get your competitors revenue, you know, get a market overview if you're an e commerce brand sorts of good stuff there for, for DUC companies.

[00:01:51] Taylor Holiday: All right. And the man who's going to get a lot of attention this month, because there was a lot of questions about meta performance yard and who are you and why do you have the answer to that question?

[00:02:00] Yarden Shaked: Hey, yeah, I'm uh, I'm, I'm, you know, I'm uh, CEO of of Veros. Basically we solve for 6, 000 uh, brands. They're looking at a lot of data. They're trying to understand it. Is it good? Is it bad? If there's a spike in data this month, there's, you know, a lot of talk about meta breakage and stuff. Is this, you know, drop in in ROAS or increase in CPM due to me or due to the market? We have that data because we are anonymous first party data co op. So, companies share data with us. We aggregate, we anonymize, we tag that data and then we show it back. So 6, 000 brands, 6 billion of ad spend across Meta, Google TikTok uh, LinkedIn and then, you know, TrackGA4 and Shopify as well and giving all those insights on an overview of, you know, what's going on in e commerce and on a category basis.

[00:02:50] Taylor Holiday: Awesome. And last but not least is the man representing the direct consumer confidence index, as well as doing a lot of the insight generation for us. Steve, who are you and what are you contributing in this project?

[00:03:01] Steven Rekuc: Yeah, I'm Steve recook senior data analyst at common thread collective. I look at data from statless. io, a much smaller set than Yarden. we have around 3 billion in annual revenue from that. And then I'm looking at survey data that Jeremiah provides from the DTCCI, our survey to see consumer sentiment about the economy, about their own spending. And then coordinating those two data sets, I'm able to calculate a consumer confidence index every week and publish that out as part of the DTCCI.

[00:03:34] Taylor Holiday: So it's great to have all of you back. We are going to spend this episode giving a little glimpse into the issue that will drop tomorrow. Today we are recording on Wednesday, March 13th. So trying to tighten the cycle loops where we can get this data processed and out to you all.

Thank you to everyone who signed up. It was an awesome launch. We've got a great group of initial people. And one of the benefits of being in the initial cohort, of Customers is that you're helping to inform the data. So we expanded, as we said, from the hot 60 to a hot 100. A lot of those were recommendations from you all.

And then we received requests for some data inputs in this edition from we've got some awesome people there. We've got everybody from Google's inside of this thing to lots of brand leaders. And it's been a great group of people to interact with so far. So we're very excited. And what I'll say is that this month.

To me reflects why we created this program. If you existed in the Twitter community, you probably think that the world is collapsing and that the end of DTC is upon us and no one will ever make money on Facebook again, because that's what it feels like out in the world. Did you guys get that sentiment?

Like, how did you all see and interact with the noise surrounding e commerce performance this month?

[00:04:39] Jeremiah Prummer: I don't know if I felt it on that level, but I definitely felt it.

[00:04:43] Yarden Shaked: Yeah, I mean, felt like from like a, definitely from like a meta level, it's like end of the world type, type issues. And for what it's worth, like various logins have kind of spiked to start checking these things intraday and getting like customer support tickets of, Hey, the thing hasn't loaded in an hour or two, you know, let's let's, you know, make it more real time.

So. People are quite on edge.

[00:05:10] Taylor Holiday: If I put my tinfoil hat on yard and I would actually say that you have an incentive for meta to get screwed up because if anybody's in there trying to break in and tinker with the algorithm, it might be you because I got to imagine I know that I was like tagging you in a bunch of twitter threads being like yard and tell these people to calm down, give them the information, show them what's going on.

[00:05:30] Yarden Shaked: Yeah, yeah. One day they'll know to just, you know, log in. And I think one day everyone will know. But but yeah, for now I just gotta be, you know, we all gotta be better at fielding those those Twitter posts.

[00:05:41] Taylor Holiday: That's right. So, well, the good news is we're going to give you a little insight into what exactly happened on meta this month as we looked at it. And understand what was really a tale of two halves, I think, in terms of what we saw happening on Metta in February, but why we're also going to use you to take a look at some exciting transaction data related to the Super Bowl.

So why don't you tell us a little bit about what you're able to do in looking at transaction data? Don't give away the information yet, but just talk about how we were able to analyze some of the commercial performance.

[00:06:08] Wyatt Mayhem: Yeah, just we took a look at some of the major advertisers. I think everyone saw Temu ads, you know, too, too many times after the first one, and then also looked at Elf. Etsy and just try to see, is this worth it? And, you know, you'll find out here shortly, but yeah, we looked at day by day. Like, was there a spike the day after?

Was there a spike the day of how did that trend continue over time? We work a lot in the sports space, so this is very close to home to us and. We'll look at how that kind of advertising compares to sports partnerships themselves, because the revenue driven is very, very different.

[00:06:52] Taylor Holiday: Awesome. And Steve, you're going to, of course, take us into the glimpse of the more macro consumer. Trends and we're going to bring to life a little bit of an analysis that has to do with debt as well as the, the DTCC. Is that correct?

[00:07:05] Steven Rekuc: Yeah, that was kind of prompted by a paper that you pointed out, Taylor, that you showed me. And a great read about how Consumer Price Index didn't include the cost of capital. And how that actually impacts people probably more these days because we've seen an increase in debt.

[00:07:25] Taylor Holiday: Awesome. Well, we're going to cover a bunch and give you a little teaser of the episode, but of course, go to ddcindex. com sign up. It'll be in your inbox tomorrow. You'll also have access to the archive of the previous edition. So you'll get January two when you sign up. So it's not like you only get here for, we're going to start archiving all of those for you.

So you can go back and look at how the edition is. evolving over time. We also have some really exciting stuff in store in the future here related to more data partners, potentially expanding to custom research projects and other things. So get in now, get a part of this community and go from there. But as we start today, we cannot look at February without looking at Valentine's day.

Valentine's day ranks as the fifth largest consumer moment of the year after black Friday, cyber Monday holiday. Mother's day and father's day. So people like to spend and Jeremiah, we're going to come to you. You kicked it off with an analysis of understanding when does gifting occur? Because one of the questions you all ask in a post purchase survey is who was this gift for?

And so this gives you a real clear trend line related to exactly when people start purchasing for significant others. So without giving it away, what did we learn in that process? And what can people look forward to in the, in the newsletter?

[00:08:33] Jeremiah Prummer: Yeah. So, February data not a surprise because we have a statistically significant data set here, but it actually matched very closely with what we saw in 2023. So we'll, we'll, we'll break all that down. And kind of look at the timeline of that gifting as well. I, I think I, I was a little bit Surprised by both the length of it and also like the, the, the peaks of, of that experience.

So, yeah, it was really good insight. And because we are seeing that really strong year over year trend, this is definitely something you'll, you'll want to be looking at. And as you're starting to look at, you know, obviously we're past Valentine's day for 2024, but and it's early in the year, but once you get towards the end of the year, you start looking at like you're planning for 2025.

I think that's kind of insights going to be really, really valuable for you. And we're pretty confident at this point in, in where we think we'll be able to predict those moments of gifting in other times. So that's something I don't know if we want to touch on that here or not, Taylor, but we've got a little bit of information here on, on in March and what we're looking at and also looking ahead towards Mother's Day and, and when you should start to be looking at those gifting moments over the next couple of months.

[00:09:39] Taylor Holiday: And what this data does, like, so as an organization, one of the things that I love about this information is that CDC has a responsibility for forecasting daily revenue. We also do things like design email, send schedules for people. And so being able to look and be able to answer.

Definitively. When is the moment when most people are buying for their significant other is a superpower. Like, I don't have to argue internally. I don't have to debate with anyone. I just say we're going to send the email here. We're going to have this promotion at this moment. It's going to end right here and I can get it.

Accurately and definitively state what the behavior is. And so this is such a great way. And as I, now I start to look out into March, which we know are the third and fourth biggest moments, but there's a father's day in early May. We begin to look at and go, okay, I can now begin to design a marketing calendar and action around this information and data.

So super useful to be able to see this visually and to see that it's consistent year over year. So I'm not guessing at all.

[00:10:34] Yarden Shaked: Yeah, I'll, I'll, I'll also add on, on, on, on this data. So, so I, you know, I saw Jeremiah's data and I try to correlate it back to Vero's in terms of ad spend, like our people, you know, are we seeing the same days when there's an increase in gifting and purchases that, that Jeremiah is seeing are people increasing our company's increasing on the ad spend side.

And something that I saw is interesting is we're basically totally correlated with Jeremiah's data until you get to February 12th and 13th. So, like, let's say from, from February 5th up until February 11th, both NoCommerce and Verus are seeing big spikes in terms of, you know, Verus seeing spend Jeremiah seeing, you know, this gifting stat going up.

But Jeremiah's keep no commerce is keeps going up February 12th every 13th where the ad spend plummets on the 12th and 13th, which kind of makes sense, right? Because, you know, maybe they're not going to ship it in time before the holiday. But people are still buying online, you know, no commerce data is post purchase. Data. So there are these purchases, but people are losing spending and it does look like there's that opportunity to maybe push spend out another day or two to really capitalize on those trends. So people, I don't think know the fact of what, what Noah's giving here.

[00:11:57] Taylor Holiday: so

[00:11:58] Jeremiah Prummer: Yeah, totally. I was gonna say, I completely agree. I was a little bit surprised at the, the fact that, that the gifting continues to happen, even after the ad spend is dropping off. So that was cool to see.

[00:12:09] Taylor Holiday: So this is going to be a shameless plug for a methodology that I believe in a lot, but this is why cost controls are as an effective form of media buying are so important is because the idea that you can predict the available volume in any one of these days accurately if you have a fixed budget is almost impossible.

And that's before you even got access to this data. But what it's showing you is that in the various data, I'm looking at the newsletter now, what increases substantially. Is revenue and spend, but efficiency remains constant in most cases because people are pressing up the available inventory, their CPM and conversion rate tend to move together, right?

So that leads to an efficiency constant, but the volume increase is what happens, right? And so to take advantage and benefit from this, you have to have variable volume available to you in your ad account relative to each day. And if you don't, If you have a fixed amount of budget every day, you're not going to necessarily reap the same benefit in the same way.

So super important again, always what we want to do here is taken data insight and apply it into an, a tactic. How do you actually take advantage of the information? So Valentine's day is good sign. So your notice. We're talking about meta. We're talking about spend in the first half of the month.

Things are looking pretty good. We're on a nice track revenues up year over year. Meta performance is good. But before we get to the back half, let's jump back to the Super Bowl because the Super Bowl lands on February 11th, right near right near that Valentine's Day cut off. And we all watched. We tuned in and watched Temu mhm.

Air four different versions of the commercial. And then if you're anything like me, you're always looking for the e commerce or consumer brands that are going to take that big swing this year. We saw elf cosmetics. We saw poppy come through and we wanted to go back and use the cast metrics data to say what happened on a direct response basis.

Now I'm going to caveat that these brands. May have larger initiatives as it relates to retail and other distribution that can be impacted. And we're only looking exclusively at direct response revenue. And we're going to let Jeremiah talk about why the story might not totally be written yet in terms of the outcome here so far, but just why, without giving away the whole thing, thumbs up or thumbs down, how did these Super Bowl commercials look for both elf?

[00:14:17] Wyatt Mayhem: Yeah. So for the Superbowl ads, we looked at three distinct players Timu elf and Etsy, and it's. Not uncommon for these types of initiatives to, you know, not do super well, and we saw a little bit of a bump in terms of the next couple days, but nothing that was really out of the ordinary. On a week over week level, necessarily the actual revenue.

Yeah, definitely subscribe to, you know, kind of see how, how that impact was, but we work with a ton of companies in the brand partnerships with sports teams. That is really how we got our start. That's our bread and butter. And you'll see over time, like. How the affinity with a certain brand, when you're really a fan of that team, you can really see like revenue year over year, really starting to see nice chunks.

Of market share being gained amongst those fans in a local market. And I think one of the things that we see with these big partnerships and with something like the Superbowl that has millions and millions of eyes watching who, you know, Really aren't necessarily fans of these teams anyway, or, you know, maybe not even a regular watcher of the NFL in general.

It's, it's hard to really expect a giant jump from any of these things really in, in a short amount of time, I think Jeremiah, like Taylor was kind of teasing, you know, has, you know, maybe some counterpoints to that, but in terms of like short term bump, it, I wouldn't say it was super substantial, but yeah.

[00:16:02] Jeremiah Prummer: . So, yeah, Yarden, I don't want to speak too much on your behalf, but I think both of us were not very pleased with, with the numbers that we saw there. And so we started digging and Yarden looked at the Google search trends. And so there's some of that stuff we looked at. And, and that's interesting to see.

But then the other thing of that we just pulled in. From actually our, our report that we, we put out last year, our 2023 recap report was looking at time to purchase for people who discover a brand on TV. And so we've pulled in some of that data. Our hypothesis is essentially that the impact of that takes some time.

You're probably not going to see all of the impact happening day one minute one, as soon as the Superbowl airs. So there, we put a little bit of analysis in there for you to, to be able to take a look at that as well. But yeah, I think it was very interesting data, very happy to have been able to see it.

And we're excited to see what y'all think about it.

[00:16:52] Taylor Holiday: Yeah. And to validate that point, we, I think I would encourage you when you look at these graphs to look at day of impact, which is also there. And then I think the strongest case here was Temu's two weeks before and two weeks after transaction volume around the Super Bowl where that lagging value capture that Jeremiah is talking about start to show up in a way that is meaningful.

And so no full story is told in any single graph is what I would say. We don't know that elf intended to drive direct response media. We Sephora revenue didn't explode. We don't know any of that. All we're giving you is a glimpse into the direct response transaction volume on their dot com in a very short period of time.

So all those appropriate caveats, go see for yourself what kind of impact that made. Okay, now we made you sit through that so you could get to the part that you're all just here to scream about. You've been yelling at the sun all month and the wind and upset because you experienced meta to be broken.

And so yard and I'm gonna come to you with this one was meta in fact broken in February.

[00:17:56] Yarden Shaked: it was. It started to break. Yes, there was breakage uh, in META. Statistically significant breakage in META. Starting at, on February 20th. You start to see significant ROAS deterioration. Up until then, February was fine. You know, not a great month, not a terrible month. Just like a normal month. And then you started seeing, you know, pretty significant drops from a ROAS perspective something that we have really liked to look at here at the DC index is the correlation, you know, Taylor talked about it before between CPM and conversion rate.

And the month over month change of that. So, basically meta has been unbelievable at even when the CPMs go up the conversion rate is going up with it. And so, they're able to keep the actual, you know, row as metrics and, you know, that, that end of funnel metrics. Relatively stable.

So even when, you know, the cost of an eyeball goes up it doesn't mean that the cost of the purchase is actually going to go up in the same ratio. But, and the whole point of, of this discovery is to find when that correlation slips, that means that there's a problem. That means that there's a problem and, you know, it's kind of out of Meta's control.

And this is what we saw in that February 20th period until the end. You really see in that parse, the first time we saw it in a good amount of time, that CPM is jumping and conversion rate is going down at that same time. And that is, that is really what's causing the problem now for, for that.

I will say that it's not, it's not horrible, you know, this isn't like, this isn't 50, we're not talking, you know, 50 percent ROAS drops here, right? We're talking we're talking, you know, 10% 15%. In total, the, the month ended down 7 percent ROAS. And you know, in, in that period, it was obviously down more significantly, but not majorly.

Now, that doesn't mean that there aren't advertisers that were affected, you know, very majorly, but if you look at the whole story. It's not that the world is ending and you know, this will come back, it will come back. But even now, the, the situation is not terrible for most advertisers it's bad and there's breakage for sure, but it's probably not as bad as what you're seeing.

You know, in, on Twitter?

[00:20:37] Taylor Holiday: And the key is right. That's specific outcomes differ than aggregate ones, right? In the sense that in specific cases, there may be people down 50%. I listened to Matt Bertelli today, talk about on the operators pod that he's down like 500 percent or his CPMs or CPMs went up 500 percent and his CPAs were through the roof to the point that he turned off the platform altogether.

So within a large data set, there are individual stories like that. So we're not diminishing anyone's individual experience, but we are trying to give you a view on what happened in meta in entirety. Right. And so I think that the key here is, and this matches, I think, anecdotally with what people are saying, is that CPM moved.

not in congruence with conversion rate. And that tends to lead to an experience that is inefficient, right? Now there's also a weird little moment of arbitrage that seemed to happen one day too, where CPMs dropped in conversion rates went up and Ross spike too. So it's clear that the system, there's something that is not connected in those ways that the market dynamic where those two things are related is out of whack and hasn't totally resolved.

It looks like the last couple of days of the month, it didn't, but we're still hearing some of that spill over in March. So we'll have that data. So. If you're having that experience, feel validated, but also understand that the relative impact on the scale here is not business destroying. That's not what we're talking about.

So keeping that in mind, and we go through all the numbers in detail throughout the throughout the report. So go in and take a deep dive there. The last thing I want to ask you, Yarden, as it relates to overall revenue impact for the month. Then when we look at the industry growth as a whole, for both seven and eight figure store owners, is the business Macro, are we growing?

Is revenue growing year over year? How are we looking despite those challenges?

[00:22:12] Yarden Shaked: yeah. Yeah. FE February overall from a business perspective, was, was a good month. I mean, this month we broke it down by seven figure brands and, and eight figure plus brands or eight to nine figure brands. In, in Ros. You know, a reminder, these are, it is from hundreds if not thousands of brands, just this data.

And so. You know, revenue for seven figure brands was up 20% in February on a year over year basis. And for eight, eight to nine figure brands, it's up 5%. And you know, returning revenue is pulling harder you know, 38 percent up for 7 figure brands and 8 percent up for 8 to 9 figure brands versus 12 and 3 for uh, respectively.

But, but, yeah, I mean, things are, you know, things are growing. Things were positive in February. Valentine's Day was a, you know, success for on an aggregate. Yeah.

[00:23:04] Taylor Holiday: Yeah. One of the things I always think about is that I go back to the e commerce industry growth rate pre COVID. Like how much was e commerce as a percentage of retail growing annually before that massive explosion. And it was about 15 percent annual growth. So one of the things I always try and benchmark for my brain is that if e commerce is capturing more and more percentage of retail and that trend line, which has seemed to normalize now post COVID that 15 percent is sort of this thing where I think is that.

More growth than expected or less growth than expected. We're so five between five at the eight figures and 20. It's sort of like we're in the neighborhood of the expected growth rate of e commerce using that framework. So for you as a store owner out there listening, I think this is that thing where you can sort of contextualize.

Your growth relative to that kind of benchmark where you can say, Hey, everyone, if you want to, as a leader, grab this and affirm your, your growth relative to the expectation, or, Hey, recognize that that was a little softer month. Maybe you didn't get to year over year growth. Maybe you, so it's not massive growth.

No one's growing. Like some people are growing obviously a ton, but that gives you a little bit of context for both seven and eight figure starters that I think is really helpful. So, Yeah. And Steve, we'll use that to jump off to then, as we're zooming seemingly out from really narrow meta results into broader industry results to now a view of the macro economy, which you're kind of always interested in, or at least our economy that we exist in on the DTC side of things.

How is the consumer feeling as it relates to the consumer confidence index? And how do you think that relates to the cost of capital and the data that you were describing as it relates to debt?

[00:24:39] Steven Rekuc: Yeah, I think we've seen more recent weeks, kind of the beginning of March, I was seeing it kind of take up. But in general, consumer confidence was kind of on the decline during February. They were coming down off of a holiday high, essentially. And there was an interesting report that we that you brought up that we spoke about how the cost of capital is not included in CPI. And not only has that increased, obviously, interest rates going up, mortgage rates climbing, but at the same time, household debt. Total household debt was at its highest level in Q4. Of 2023, they haven't published 2024 yet because Q4 is not finished. But household debt was at 17. 5 trillion. And obviously the majority of that in mortgages but when consumers have a lot of debt and the cost of that debt is high, then that's going to be reflected on their ability, inability to spend basically.

[00:25:37] Taylor Holiday: Yeah, it's interesting. And one of the charts I'd like to examine here that I think can be hard to initially understand is this question that we ask in the survey through know about are they planning to spend more in the present and the future and the spread between those things? So there's a graph that we put in the chart that is a example of the percent spread between spending more or less in the future.

And so can you give us a little bit about what that question is? Okay. Thanks. What it's attempting to explore and then what the results are that we're seeing in February. Yeah.

[00:26:19] Steven Rekuc: and future spending. In our case, we actually saw the lowest value that we've recorded in the, in the survey for present spending in February.

So that is indicative of consumers kind of pulling back more. They are increasing in anticipated future spending, meaning that number finally ticked up from lows in December and January. The post holiday people were kind of planning on pulling back on their finances and spending. And that showed in February particularly toward the beginning of the month.

And I think the uptick in future spending means that they're going, they're still anticipating spending into the going into the future. So I, I think we're going to see more of that. That's kind of the uptick we saw just. Prior to a much larger uptick prior to black Friday, cyber Monday. Everyone was anticipating spending a lot more than.

[00:27:17] Taylor Holiday: What I love about this chart is that if you lay it over, like the actual consumer experience that we see in e commerce, it present spending spikes in November and December, like everybody is aware and consciously declaring that they intend to spend now and future spending declines. They say we're spending now and not in the future.

Right. And then alternatively, what we see right now is that we see a massive decrease in present spending. Everyone's like, not right now. Now is not the moment. And for many brands, February is usually a really soft e commerce. It's not a great e commerce, but we're starting to see, okay. Future spending though.

Yeah. I have a little bit more intention for that coming. And so we use this report to gauge the future, to start to get a sense of how might March be. So with the signals you're seeing. We, I think we saw an increase in the DTCCI the last February. We saw an increase in that blue trend line. Give us a little bit of a feeling about March.

How would you expect March to land as you look forward based on what the consumer is telling you? And

[00:28:14] Steven Rekuc: Yeah, I was seeing an uptick in the consumer confidence mainly, even though we saw present spending at the lowest level we've recorded in DTCCI, people were still spending. They still had an increase in, in revenue across brands year over year. And the anticipated future spending means that they're going to be spending more.

And that's why when, when I calculate, calculate out the I was coming up at like 103. 2 is my most recent reading. And that's relative to, like, the average of 100 being the normal. And I think we're getting back to kind of a spring thaw. Where people are looking to spend money. for spring breaks. They have coming up for their household as things getting warmer.

Everything else.

[00:29:02] Taylor Holiday: that's the highest recorded number I'm looking right now, Steve, going all the way back to May of 2023. Like, so it's a, it's a pretty strong. So we've got declaration of higher intended future spending. We've got higher confidence. The other thing that I'm always surprised by right now is that we have seen a continued response to the sentiment about the economy, where we ask people just generally what their view of the economy is and the spread between negative or better or worse continues to rise.

It was a slight dip in February versus January, where January was kind of an all time high. So there's this like combination of factors where people feel generally good about the economy, February, they didn't intend to spend. So it's not like that's surprising necessarily, but now they're declaring that they might be in the future.

So we're hopeful, I guess, is that fair to say?

[00:29:47] Steven Rekuc: Yeah, absolutely.

[00:29:49] Taylor Holiday: Awesome. Well, all of this I think puts together a really interesting set of information and even more in the DC index, you're going to get a view of how Amazon performed in the month. You're going to get the whole DTC hot 100. That we break down. Why at any teasers from the hot 100 that you want to give out?

Maybe a couple of brands that we added that weren't in the initial batch that are, you know, of offhand.

[00:30:09] Wyatt Mayhem: yeah. I would say there's one thing that I will call out the mark, man, what the MKB HD, how the hell the Marquez Brownlee, right.

[00:30:18] Taylor Holiday: Yeah. Yeah.

[00:30:19] Wyatt Mayhem: I'm so, I'm so out of touch, but. That partnership with Ridge, we're going to take a look into you know, it got really, really big on, you know, e commerce Twitter was that a bubble of ours or was it, you know, revenue driving right away?

So we're gonna, we're gonna dive into that. A lot of other good brands in here that we added. Magic spoon Lomi, a lot of great brands in here. So definitely check it out. See how extra is standing up next to Ridge. That's always a fun one. So yeah, there's some good brands in there.

[00:30:51] Yarden Shaked: I love the, I love the checking Twitter versus reality concepts. I think you know, that was going on with Solo Stove, right? The past in the past month,

some, some, some angry YouTube, YouTube one side there. I feel like I saw glimpses of that, but I love, I love proving those things out of like, what is.

Because, you know, obviously we've seen a million times if creative is like looks beautiful and things like that. That's actually not necessarily what works and things like that. And so I think there's a lot of examples to sort of prove prove right or wrong here by the data.

[00:31:26] Taylor Holiday: We may, we may have to just change the name of this to bursting the bubble and just trying to help us all get outside of it. Cause I, I felt guilty to it too. Right. My reality feels like what? happens to the things that we're all talking about, but we're so small relative to the broader world. And so it's part of why we wanted to do this project for ourself and why we think it's valuable, but we're going to give you that.

We've got over a hundred brands to look at. We've got a deep dive on a bunch of individual topics. We also have a really cool sort of a research report from know about Price sensitivity by age and gender. I mean, I'm just scrolling through this thing right now. 37 pages right now in word docs of graphs and data and insights from the team.

As we continue to expand this, it will be live tomorrow. And as always, please feedback, tell us what else you want to see. We can get almost anything, any view, any insight, any information. We're building out categorical results from the ad performance side where we look at the best and worst performing categories of the month.

We're going to expand on that in the future episodes. So, so much more to come, but sign up DTC index. com and we'd love to have you. We're going to be emailing with you all individually as participants in the early days and excited to continue to bring these insights. So gentlemen, I appreciate having all of you.

Any last words before we sign off here? 

[00:32:41] Jeremiah Prummer: Let's say happy March. I uh, I'm hoping everybody has a great rest of their month and we start to see this consumer confidence play out and lots of revenue for everyone.

[00:32:50] Taylor Holiday: That's right. Always the case. Go get them. Appreciate you all for listening. Sign up. DTCindex. com. Talk soon.