Your Unsold Inventory Is Costing You More Than You Think

[00:00:00] Anmar: what we're talking about here and what we've seen be successful is we kind of want to have an all-out effort on this inventory.

[00:00:05] And so part of it is database marketing, which is free for the most part. We're, we're talking about email and SMS sends here that go out to an existing list. But then part of it is a CAC associated with pushing those things on Meta, pushing those things on, on Google potentially, um, and, and other channels as well.

[00:00:20] So the idea would be, okay, uh, we're gonna, we're gonna try to move them in a free way as mu- you know, as much as we can here on the email and SMS side. But then beyond that, we want to be able to scale through paid and push those units as well. But what does that CAC ought to be? Um, how much of a loss are we willing to take?

[00:00:36] Do we need to get to breakeven? Are, are we willing to take a loss at all?

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[00:01:30] Richard: Hey, folks. Welcome to the Ecommerce Playbook podcast. I'm your host, Richard Gaffan, Director of Digital Product Strategy here at Common Thread Collective, and I'm joined today by a very special guest.

[00:01:38] I don't believe... Have you been on the podcast before, Ammar?

[00:01:42] Anmar: No, not quite yet

[00:01:43] Richard: No. Not, not quite yet. Well, here, here we are. It's happening now. Uh, Ammar Abduljawad, who's our Director of Profit Engineering here at Common Thread Collective, is joining us today to talk a little bit more on a tactical level about, uh, the Cashmas in July event that we're running right now.

[00:01:58] So, uh, those who listen to the podcast will know I talked to Randall, uh, relatively recently. I'm not sure when this one is coming out, but either a few days ago or a week ago, um, I talked to him about kind of the specifics of why we're doing this and why it's important. So we're gonna reiterate some of that stuff, but then, uh, Ammar's gonna kind of dig a little bit more into how exactly you execute it, and then kind of get a little bit into maybe fleshing out the reasons that it's really, really important.

[00:02:23] So, uh, just kind of the, the quick overview for, uh, those who have forgotten or didn't listen to the first one is that what we're doing is, uh, the Cashmas in July event, the whole purpose of it is to, uh, create a scenario where you're realizing more cash, have more cash on hand in Q3 so that it's available to deploy in Q4.

[00:02:43] Now, that's definitely a simplistic way of thinking a-about it, but what we've seen across the board is that brands who are able to liquidate inventory in Q3 are then able to deploy that money in Q4 in such a way that they actually see, uh, like, huge growth relative to brands that don't do that. So the brands that are sitting on inventory are just sort of letting the Q3 doldrums take them.

[00:03:04] When Q3 comes-- or Q4 comes, rather, they see marginal growth or they're flat, or they even shrink a little bit as well. So there's-- it's clearly this is an incredibly important time, even though a lot of the time it becomes, uh, this sort of part of the ecommerce calendar is overlooked and sort of treated as this kind of, like, holding pattern before the Q4 madness starts.

[00:03:24] So, um, what I wanna s-start is talking a little bit, like, from your perspective, Ammar, what are the reasons beyond just... Or maybe you can flesh out a little bit more the reasons why liquidating inventory in Q3, having cash on hand is so important.

[00:03:40] Anmar: Yeah, absolutely. And we'll, we'll get to that part. I think to tee it up, there's a bunch of brands who are in a couple of different spots right now as it relates to inventory, um, especially among this like subsection that just has an inventory problem or what they would describe as too much inventory on hand.

[00:03:54] Broadly speaking, there could be this group that is, um, they're, they're sitting in a situation where they know that the product is gonna move, they just haven't gotten around to really fleshing out the assets it would take to really move the product. So it's an executional piece. And then there's this other subsection of brands where they kinda don't know.

[00:04:10] It's sitting there at full price. They've tried a couple things. Maybe they've tried pushing it more aggressively on Meta or through database marketing on email, um, and it's not really moving to the degree that they want it to. And they're in a situation where they would like a lot more kind of strategy and understanding of, okay, if I do push it on Meta, what should my targets be?

[00:04:27] How should I think about the profitability of this unit of cohorts relative to the rest of my business? And so because they're in these two camps, what we wanted to have is in offering those sort of equal parts execution for those folks who are like, "I know it's gonna move. I'm just stuck in the evergreen kinda hum of my business, and I can't really, you know, afford to dedicate a bunch of resources to actually getting this done."

[00:04:47] And so we wanted to have it be equal parts execution for those folks, and equal parts strategy as well for the folks who are like, uh, in, in this position where it's not just about execution, but it's also about what do I do? How do I turn this into an operating plan, including the forecast for the rest of my team to hold ourselves against for the month of July, month of August, and onwards as it relates to our P&L and our actual marketing dashboard, not just kind of the balance sheet, which we're, which we're aiming to, to attack.

[00:05:10] So I'd say that's how we first sort of came about, uh, the way that we want to put this offering together. And then to your point about a couple things related to, let's say, uh, the, the downsides of having the inventory on hand. Yeah, absolutely. There's, there's two right away in- major components, which is the direct cost.

[00:05:27] Sometimes there's storage fees on the, the inventory level here at 3PLs. The other part is also just opportunity cost. So what else could you be doing with the money? Um, there's a big cash outlay that has to happen ahead of Q4. If you've seen our content around four peaks, you get an understanding of you get these two sort of natural peaks on any given e-commerce brand that happens, one in Q4 for Black Friday, one usually that syncs up with what the brand story is.

[00:05:51] Um, something like International Women's Day earlier in the year, or skincare is a little bit earlier in the year as well, um, something like that. But you got this summer doldrum, which makes it really tough on cash because your worst revenue is happening in the moment where you actually need the most cash to lay out your biggest inventory purchase for the year.

[00:06:06] And so this is in keeping with that. Those are two kind of direct, uh, immediate benefits that you'll have as a result of liquidating some of that inventory, turning it back into cash, and getting ready for, uh, a strong Q4. And there's a couple more things that we'll talk about as we get into it here today, I'm sure.

[00:06:20] Richard: Yeah. Well, we can-- let's, let's dive into those right now actually, because-- So when I talked to Randall, we did-- we spoke a little bit about kind of both of those things, like... Or, or we spoke kind of broadly maybe about the, the damaging or negative effects of holding onto inventory over the course of the summer.

[00:06:36] So obviously, I mentioned at the top, like the impact that it has on your Q4 is clear. But you had a couple of others sort of that we maybe didn't speak to last time, s- a couple of other reasons why this is so important, so maybe we could dig into those

[00:06:50] Anmar: Yeah. And this doesn't apply to everybody universally, but, um, I'm sure most of you folks are at this point familiar with the way that we model out spend and efficiency. So, you know, generally one of the most important questions that a marketing team has to answer at the outset of every single month is how much money should we spend on marketing?

[00:07:06] And you can either spend a huge amount of money at a very large CAC or a very small amount of money at a very, uh, low CAC and, and every, and every sort of point on that curve in between. And so our job a lot of times with brands that we take on is to help them figure out what that sweet spot is. So based on your LTV dynamics, based on your margin profile as well, um, and seasonality of course, what's that optimal point on that spend and efficiency curve that helps you maximize either the revenue or the contribution margin that you're generating from that cohort of, of spend that you're, you're putting out on a given month, right?

[00:07:37] And so, um, you know, I was pulling a couple examples here, and so I don't know, Richard, if we can also do a bit of a screen share here and show this.

[00:07:43] Richard: Yeah. Yeah

[00:07:44] Anmar: Yeah, sweet. So here, here's an example of a spend and AMER model, and this is that spend and efficiency curve modeled out exactly like we just talked about. And so for this brand here, they've got really strong LTV. So their LTV here over the course of two years is gonna increase by about 130%.

[00:07:59] So if a customer spends a dollar with them on day one, over the course of the next two years, they'll spend another dollar and 30 cents. And so if they wanna optimize for the point in the spend and efficiency curve that maximizes contribution margin, that's about here. So they should be spending about $180,000 at a CAC of 98, and what that'll produce is $200,000 in new customer revenue, um, and contribution margin over the lifetime of that cohort of 154 grand.

[00:08:23] Now, this is the optimal point. Uh, sometimes we talk about, you know, having in the spend and efficiency model a couple of different points to be able to optimize for, but make no mistake about it, when cash is not a constraint, the optimal point on this curve is to maximize the lifetime, uh, value of that co- uh, lifetime contribution margin of that cohort.

[00:08:41] Um, now one thing that you'll notice also along the same, uh, row in the, in the sheet here in the table is that contribution margin on month one, this puts them into the negative. So if they're spending $180,000 at a CAC of 98 just relative to the, the, um, AOV and the actual, uh, variable cost associated with putting that product at the customer's door, they're going into the negative here by 44,000.

[00:09:05] Now, if you know about the way that we think about profitability in general for e-commerce, um, we want the returning customer revenue contribution margin to exceed the OpEx. And if that happens, then you're at a point where you can be about as aggressive as breakeven on customer acquisition and still kind of turn a profit at the, at the EBITDA level, at the P&L level for the business on that month.

[00:09:24] But now what we're talking about here is, okay, do we have what we need from either a returning customer revenue contribution margin perspective or a cash perspective to be able to be as aggressive as we need to be on customer acquisition? And so for a lot of brands, the answer is no. And so they actually have to step back on the, the, the potential to acquire future profitable cohorts and to scale up their customer acquisition volume.

[00:09:48] They have to step back on that because they don't have the cash to fund customer acquisition as aggressively as they need to. And so, um, they might have to do something like this, which is the maximizing contribution margin scenario, where they're only spending $80,000 generating, uh, a, a pretty decent hit on top line here by about 80,000 to, to get to 120K on new customer revenue and a lifetime contribution margin that is substantially lower now because they couldn't have-- they, they couldn't sort of fund that aggressive customer acquisition.

[00:10:14] This isn't the case with all the brands across the board, but I think the big, the big idea is that there's direct costs and opportunity costs associated with not having, uh, the, the cash that you need to, to prepare for a strong Q4, and those are just a couple ways that, that we see that shake out in e-commerce businesses.

[00:10:29]

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[00:11:26] Richard: Um, yeah, and, and one thing that, that we had mentioned too a little bit before hitting record is that this is not necessarily only about looking forward to Q4, particularly in that case where, um, just j- as a general rule, because if you're a high LTV business, having cash on hand in order to spend aggressively against new customer acquisition is important year-round.

[00:11:48] And so particularly if, if you're that type of brand, like this is fundamentally important for you to be able to put on a marketing moment that puts cash in your hand, which is essentially what we're doing here with Cash Machine July. So, um, a- and I'll get a- again, I'll kind of near the end here, I can remind everybody a little bit more about what that offer is.

[00:12:05] But, um, right now I think it would be interesting, obviously, Ammar, you're deep in the trenches on this stuff, like you're working with clients on a day-to-day basis. So I'm curious like to get some like tactical specifics around ways that this sort of inventory liquidation move has worked in the past, either with clients that you've worked with, um, clients right now, clients in the past, uh, anything like that.

[00:12:29] Anmar: Yeah. Let, let's sort of outline what it actually takes to move the inventory successfully, right? And we can use that to back into what actually ends up happening, uh, when a brand works with us on a project like this. So the first thing you've gotta do is first get an understanding of, okay, what is the inventory that we're trying to move, and what was the historical velocity of those SKUs?

[00:12:45] Like, are we talking about things that are just really difficult to move because they're just unwanted pieces, or are we talking about something that we just over-ordered, there's still demand there, we have succeed- successfully created funnels for them, ads for them, emails for them in the past, and a lot of it is just kind of adding a little bit of fuel to the fire to something that we already know works.

[00:13:03] So getting clear on the inventories that we actually need to move is part one. Um, the inventory count as well, right? Just like how big is the inventory position that we're talking about here? Um, are we talking about kind of a small adjustment, or are we talking about something that is potentially really weighing down the business, and we have to have a very, uh, concerted and big effort around moving that, that volume because it's just so different to the volume that we've been moving in the past?

[00:13:23] And I've seen this for a couple of reasons, right? There could be organic demand that puts a certain SKU in demand for a period of time, and then you move out of that period of time, and we just no longer have that organic demand for whatever reason. It was something in the news that was driving the s- the, the SKU itself, the SKU velocity at the time, but that's no longer happening or no longer relevant.

[00:13:41] And so from just a standard kind of business-as-usual direct-to-consumer, uh, playbook, we're not finding that, uh, that piece to-- tho-those pieces to be moving kind of to the same, to the same degree. There's a couple reasons that brands could kind of get in that spot, but I think number one is just overall clarity on how big is the problem, what specific SKUs are we talking about, and have they succeeded before?

[00:14:00] Are they the types of SKUs where, um, we just need to give them kind of a little concerted nudge, or do we actually need to develop a big playbook around moving them because there's just no evidence that there's demand for that product in general, right? It's complete kind of, you know, dud by the standards of just how, um, how it's worked in the past.

[00:14:15] So that's part one. I think part two, and this is where a lot of strategy comes in, is just understanding, okay, how much can we pay to move this inventory off of our books? How much should we pay, right? Because what we're talking about here and what we've seen be successful is we kind of want to have an all-out effort on this inventory.

[00:14:31] And so part of it is database marketing, which is free for the most part. We're, we're talking about email and SMS sends here that go out to an existing list. But then part of it is a CAC associated with pushing those things on Meta, pushing those things on, on Google potentially, um, and, and other channels as well.

[00:14:46] So the idea would be, okay, uh, we're gonna, we're gonna try to move them in a free way as mu- you know, as much as we can here on the email and SMS side. But then beyond that, we want to be able to scale through paid and push those units as well. But what does that CAC ought to be? Um, how much of a loss are we willing to take?

[00:15:02] Do we need to get to breakeven? Are, are we willing to take a loss at all? And that's a very individual conversation that happens with your profit engineer in, in tandem with the brand itself and, and understanding, um, a lot of things we talked about, like the extent to which there's a cash problem. Um, how's the profitability of the rest of the business?

[00:15:20] Um, and, and, you know, can we support going potentially into the negative on this, on these SKUs to just move them very quickly, um, for a short period of time, or is it something where we have to hold ourselves to a higher efficiency constraint? So Part two, uh, would be getting, getting a good grasp on the financials.

[00:15:35] Uh, part three would be really turning that into a plan. So this is what we do in Statlas. This is what you all have seen before a bunch of times where, um, we're setting an operating plan for everyone involved in the team across all channels and 35 different metrics per day for how the business overall is supposed to look.

[00:15:50] This is our marketing dashboard. So what is our revenue? What is our ad spend? What's our efficiency targets for each of those segments of the business? The business as usual kind of segment and hum that happens in the background, plus this additional tranche of spend and efficiency that's happening on our inventory liquidation piece.

[00:16:07] So for a very, um, short period of time, the dashboard is gonna look different than it usually does, but it's important that that, uh, tho- those expectations are clarified so we have a very clear understanding of what our plan is on a day-to-day basis. So I'd say those are the first kind of initial setup pieces.

[00:16:23] Beyond that, and I think this is why having a separate execution partner is, is helpful on this kind of stuff, but beyond that, it's like, um, we're talking about execution on actual assets, right? So production value on the images that we're using for Meta, um, the ads themselves, the emails that, that are going out, and then a landing page as well that may or may not make its way to the website.

[00:16:43] So we're talking about potentially kind of a dark funnel that happens where your customers don't get a br- a damaged brand image as a result of you doing a, a warehouse sale or something where things are deeply discounted. But instead, it's actually kind of this very dedicated funnel to just cl- uh, that, that's hidden away from your main site, and it's just a very clean path for people who want the deal to get it, uh, and then it quietly goes away.

[00:17:04] So, um, the production of the assets is very important, and the reason I say that is because one of the mistakes I've seen when people move into inventory liquidation periods in their business is that it just removes focus from the business as usual, um, hum of things that you're doing. And so all of a sudden, the production team, uh, is, is pretty much always at capacity internally, right?

[00:17:23] And so all of a sudden, you're not getting meta ads that, that refresh and fuel your existing, uh, business as usual products. The emails are, are way catered over onto the inventory liquidation side, but you've got a, a big database segment that is not receiving your business as usual education and offer emails that drive the revenue for the rest of the business.

[00:17:41] So there's an amount of focus that gets taken away from that, that we wanna, we, we wanna avoid that happening, right? We wanna make sure that you can continue to operate in a business as usual, um, fashion here with, with the rest of your business while this sits on top as a, as an additional executional layer.

[00:17:56] Richard: Yeah.

[00:17:56] so it's siloed in two ways. So one of them is the fact that this exists outside of your regular flow so that customers who don't wanna see this will not see it, and, uh, in order to not degrade your brand. And then also what you're mentioning is like with th- this particular offer, like the reason to have a third party do it is because it has to exist in tandem with what you're already doing evergreen.

[00:18:16] And so by kind of going with us, let's say, to build this for you, uh, you don't have to kind of shift gears and shift effort away from what you're already doing. So, uh, b- but one thing I wanted to kind of circle back to real quick, um, is you had mentioned, so the first kind of initial three steps here are just determining what the situation is.

[00:18:35] So how, how bad is it in terms of like, I don't know, sell-through rate or whatever? How bad is it in terms of cash position? And then what are the metrics that we'd need to hit to resolve that? So to talk about in the situation where, let's say, somebody comes to us to build one of these offers, and they're, they're in that situation where everything's a dud, like you had pointed out, right?

[00:18:56] Like some deep work is going to need to be done to move these ty- types of things. Is that then just like secretly put some of it at 90% off, 80% off, 70% off, whatever? Or is there like another-- Like how would you attack that scenario once that was set in stone?

[00:19:12] Anmar: Yeah. Yeah. Well, it's really interesting that you mentioned kind of 90, 80, 70. I think usually the way that we think about these things is we want to sequence in order of discounting least to then discounting as much as we have to, right? And so it starts off with trying to sell the stuff at full price, which obviously by them being in this situation has not worked.

[00:19:28] Um, and then we move off into, uh, potential small sales that are included as part of site-wides. Most brands by this point have actually tried those things as well. Um, and then there's a more concerted effort around moving the inventory. I think giving a percentage that's, that's broad strokes is difficult to do because, uh, so much of it is relative to what's the initial price.

[00:19:45] Was it actually mispriced by 25% or was it mispriced by 50%? Does it have to really half in price to be able to move any, any significant amount of volume? I think those things are very independent per brand, and also just the history of the brand's discounting because, um, I can think of a couple clients that we work with that absolutely do not discount outside of Black Friday.

[00:20:03] And because of that, any amount of sort of contingency sales or any amount of 10% to 20%, um, uh, movements on certain SKUs, um, will actually create meaningful volume. For a lot of brands though, 10% to 20% is pretty much the norm across their site, almost on an evergreen basis, and so they have to do something a little bit more drastic.

[00:20:20] So I think that's one sort of avenue in which I, I, I think about it. Um, the other, the other part of it too is, um, there's the offer itself, right? So when you say like how difficult is it to move something that's a dud, something that hasn't moved, I think of that as a proxy for CAC in some sense. How much are you willing to pay to move it?

[00:20:36] And you might be-- you might need to be willing to pay a little bit more than you historically have because, um, that's what it actually takes to get the inventory kind of off your books and, and to actually create some, create some demand there. Um, so it's more convincing dollars, you could think about it that way.

[00:20:49] Um, but part two to that is just a, a concerted creative strategy. It really is about understanding in, in the past, what have we done to try to move the SKU? How have we begun to try to tell the story about what it is, why people should buy it, um, and then, uh, what, what can we do now to make sure that, uh, we're, we're sort of shoring up any gaps there and just putting a little bit more concerted effort into that SKU.

[00:21:09] Um, and again, I think this is one of those things where brands do tend to be on a very big spectrum of we've tried everything. We just can't get it to move, and so now it has to get discounted more heavily to all the way on the other side, which is like, yeah, it got part of our regular treatment. It got 5% of our efforts as we created, uh, meta ads for just the rest of our SKU set.

[00:21:27] Um, but there wasn't really a concerted push to try to educate the customer about it, and that's where something like a dedicated production pack can really come in because we're talking about emails, landing pages, and ad, um, and, and, uh, ad assets that are speaking to that SKU very specifically in a way where-- in, in a way that's sort of more attention than that SKU has gotten, um, in, in times past for the brand.

[00:21:50] Richard: Hmm. Well, and that's also, like, a good illustration of maybe, like, why it's important to have a third party do this ki- type of work because generally speaking, like, over the course of the year, it would probably not be the best idea for you to take your team and your time and energy and put it towards trying to move the thing that hasn't been moving.

[00:22:06] The reason that we would do this kind of during this season is that because of the sort of the specifics around the situation around how important generated cash is, um, but, like, ultimately it makes sense to have kind of like a third party or a separate entity come alongside you and actually dedicate the resources needed to allow you then to focus on maybe things that are moving better or whatever the case may be.

[00:22:29] Does that sound right? Or, like, how would you think about that?

[00:22:32] Anmar: I-- Well, I think that's absolutely right. And, and there's also this aspect of just not taking your eyes off the prize as it relates to the evergreen part, because, um, part of what's so difficult to do is to say, um, you know, one of the reasons that there's always kind of a tension around creative volume is that brands tend to be maxed out for the most part.

[00:22:48] Like, there's nobody who's not producing assets to the volume that they otherwise kinda can, right? So, um, asking for an incremental sort of 25% additional amount of production on, um, either emails or ads, uh, tends to be just difficult for internal brands to produce. And so what has to happen is they fix the, the sort of total production.

[00:23:05] Let's say you're making 300 ads a month, they fix that, and then now all of a sudden 100 out of those 300 ads are dedicated to something else, and you're taking your eyes off and your, your, your attention off of, uh, a lot of the evergreen SKUs that still need the creative refreshes. They still need the daily attention and love and, and sort of efforting, um, on the marketing side that they always have gotten.

[00:23:24] And so, yes, uh, to your point, having sort of an additional partner come in and make sure that they can supplement it with a production pack is really important so that there's no, there's no disruption to the business as usual in evergreen business.

[00:23:36] Richard: Um, so I'm gonna quickly run through kind of what this includes. So, uh, if you do sign up for our Cashmas in July offer, it's-- we'll create 25 static creative assets for you for... Essentially what it is, is like we'll s- those three steps that you'd mentioned, Amar, we'll sit down and do that work, like figure out exactly what the position is, what needs to happen, how much cash needs to be generated and can be generated.

[00:23:55] And then we'll b- essentially create a marketing moment, a inventory liquidation marketing moment for you. So we'll create, again, the static creative assets, 15 email sends, obviously the strategy and forecasting that comes along with that, a meta media plan, and then we'll check in kind of mid-campaign to see where you're at and redirect you if need be.

[00:24:14] So the idea is, like all of that preparatory work, we will do that for you. We will generate this for you so that you can begin doing that work of generating the cash when you really need to. So that's going on right now. It's Cashmas in July as we speak. So you can check us out, comethroughco.com, hit the Hire Us button, let us know you're interested.

[00:24:31] We'll also have the link directly to the landing page, uh, in the show notes as well if you wanna go straight there. Um, but Amar, anything else that you wanna say about this tactically, executionally, anything?

[00:24:43] Anmar: Yeah, you hit on the most important parts, Richard. I, I think one thing that's underrated is just how much sort of access to data that we have across all the previous attempts of this, um, across our portfolio. And so one thing that will come through in a lot of the ad planning and the email planning is you're gonna, uh, you're, you're in a very bus- specific business situation and, uh, we've encountered similar things before.

[00:25:02] And so we're gonna give you a very good idea of sort of ad angles that have worked in the past, ad angles to avoid, and that way you feel like you can give it, uh, the best shot possible, uh, in a very b- uh, data-backed way. So I, I just wanna make sure that that, that comes across too and, and, um, yeah, to your point, reach out for a conversation and we'll see if it's something that we can be helpful with.

[00:25:20] Richard: That's right. We've seen it all before, and we're excited to do it for you. So again, check it out. Uh, link in the show notes to the landing page, and then of course, as always, commentaryco.com and hit that hire us button. We'd love to talk to you. So I think that's gonna wrap it us for, uh, up for us. Amar, appreciate you joining us.

[00:25:34] And for everybody else out there, we will talk to you next time. See you