The Machine: How We Back-Check Every Q4 Plan Before BFCM

[00:00:00] Randall: Mm-hmm. Okay. Yeah, stumble, stumble all we want

[00:00:13] Garrett: Great.

[00:00:16] Randall: Okay. Uh, all right. So, um, I did my first ever podcast, uh, with Jar not too long ago, and here's, here's the second one. Uh, the first one I feel like went pretty well, but here we are. Garrett Hord. I guess I should've, should even ask, am I, am I saying Garrett Hord? I'm the new guy, so I don't even know if I'm saying that name right.

[00:00:37] Garrett: You got it, man. You got it. Yep. Yep

[00:00:40] Randall: Yep. And then, uh, it's my understanding one of the longest tenured, uh, people at CTC. Is that, is that fair to say?

[00:00:48] Garrett: I think so. It's actually funny, today is my eight-year anniversary on the day, so September 17th, 2018. Um, and most of the people that were at CTC, or not most, but a large part of the core group back then are still here today, and I'm lucky enough to be one of them

[00:01:10] Randall: So you've seen it all. 20- 2018 roughly is when you started.

[00:01:14] Garrett: Yep. Yeah

[00:01:16] Randall: So, e-commerce in 2018 wasn't super easy at the time. You know, like 2015, 2016, uh, it was, it, it was relatively easy. And then you had the COVID boom in 2020, and then the COVID doom in 2022. So you've seen all sorts of landscapes, and everything's kind of stabilizing now, and, uh, we're actually seeing some really good operators emerge.

[00:01:36] Randall: So you've seen it, you've seen it all.

[00:01:39] Garrett: Totally, man. It definitely felt a lot easier back then to scale a Facebook account on Black Friday than, uh, than it does today

[00:01:50] Randall: Yeah. And, uh, one of these things that I kind of live with is I go, uh, I, I'm sure you've heard the quote that like the more you learn, the more you realize you don't know, and like the harder things actually get. And, uh, me kind of living in the COVID doom to boom area, uh, or d- boom to doom, uh, era, uh, I really had to put my hat on and really learn.

[00:02:10] Randall: And then as I was learning, I was like, "Man, I really don't know anything." Um, and then it-- I'm thinking to myself, "Am I just making this more complicated than it needs to be or does it really need to be this complicated?" Um, but, uh, yeah. So anyways, uh, I'm gonna start you off with a, uh, with kind of like this, uh, I guess this hook.

[00:02:29] Randall: I guess this could be a, a marketing hook. Um, but the idea is, is that in, uh, in life, we, w- we constantly make big decisions and we always run those big decisions by, by some sort of third party before actually diving into them or getting into them. Um, and then, uh, there was kind of this realization that Q4, uh, from a business perspective is the biggest decision-- Uh, Q4 carries the biggest decisions that a business is gonna make.

[00:03:03] Randall: Um, millions of dollars of inventory, millions of dollars of ad spend, uh, beefing up your OpEx. And the idea is, is that your internal team or your agency goes and builds this plan of what Q4 is gonna look like, and then nobody back checks it. Um, so then from there, and I, and I'm getting to the point here, but from there I thought to myself, "Okay, who's the guy at CTC that's seen some shit over time?"

[00:03:31] Randall: And, uh, all fingers pointed towards you. And so, uh, we created this thing called the machine that essentially you-- The, the brand takes their Q4 plan, they put it through, um, they, they put it through the machine, and the machine outputs a better Q4 plan, or where it could be soft or where it could be, uh, strong.

[00:03:53] Randall: Um, and then they go and execute against that. So the idea here is to take your, uh, all the shit you've seen over the past eight years and, and try to point towards patterns that, that, um, that are maybe common that, uh, brands could, could learn from here. So, uh, with that said, uh, it's, uh, it seems as if that, uh, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, let's just start there, even though Q4 doesn't necessarily start there, but let's just start there.

[00:04:26] Randall: It seems like there's this trend that happened, that, that's happening in e-commerce that everybody is trying to p- pull that revenue forward. They're, they're starting Black Friday as soon as November 1st hits, they're pulling Black Friday, Cyber Monday forward. Um, is that a trend that you see on your side?

[00:04:42] Randall: What's the upside of that? What's the downside of that? Is there a better way of going about that? Um, what, what's your point of view on that?

[00:04:49] Garrett: Totally. Yeah. Yeah. It's a, it's a good setup. I think before I jump into that specifically, yeah, I just wanna reiterate, like for some brands that we work with, even larger ones, not, not some of the smaller eight-figure stores or even seven-figure stores, it's definitely can be more extreme. But even some of the larger eight to, to nine-figure stores, close to 50% of their revenue is coming from Q4, um, and sometimes even higher.

[00:05:16] Garrett: So the point is like, you know, more than half of the year's revenue potentially, and a huge chunk of the contribution margin is coming in a, you know, three-month period and really even more concentrated around that. So to, yeah, to treat it like any other month or sale period or product launch, uh, would obviously be, uh, uh, not putting enough effort relative to the potential impact.

[00:05:44] Garrett: So totally agree with that. Um, you know, we try to start planning so early for Q4 and Black Friday, and I think that that sort of hits on the point, right? Is like we're not planning for it in October, we're planning for it starting in July, really

[00:06:00] Randall: Yeah, what's interesting is that we started deep diving into the numbers and we found that 50% of revenue and 50% of contribution margin actually comes from a 30-day stretch within, uh, I think it's November 13th through like December 13th

[00:06:13] Garrett: Yeah. Which, yeah, my understanding of why it was called Black Friday and to begin with was to become profitable on the Friday after Thanksgiving. So yeah, there's just as much of a revenue expectation as there is a, a profitability one as well. Um, but yeah, to, to answer the question about pulling revenue forward, I think over the last two years, part of our like CTC, you know, sort of external or starting place of, you know, so many of our strategies for our clients are obviously nuanced and case by case, depending on the unique situation that each business is in.

[00:06:50] Garrett: But we also, of course, from a sort of leadership level down to all of our teams have the sort of like CTC, I don't know, go to market playbook, I guess, for Q4 or Black Friday on a yearly basis. And, um, for at least the last two years, gosh, maybe, maybe even longer than that, uh, we've sort of taken our four peaks theory that Taylor and everyone has talked about for probably close to eight years now since I've been around, and even sort of broken that out into different peaks throughout Q4 specifically.

[00:07:26] Garrett: So, um, we're definitely aligned with the idea of pulling revenue forward, but really the, the idea isn't just to pull revenue forward out of Black Friday, it's obviously to add incremental revenue and contribution margin. And the reason we Have recommended and, and why we continue to see it be so impactful and actually incremental rather than just again, like moving revenue from November 27th to November 15th, is there's these different points throughout the calendar, throughout Q4 really zooming in on, on, on Q4 that you start to see conversion rate at a really h- macro level increase as the demand starts to pick up with people launching sales early, people wanting to do holiday shopping early.

[00:08:18] Garrett: Um, and so, you know, that's Black Friday's highest conversion rate day of the year or Cyber Monday for, for most brands, one of the two. They're, they're oftentimes very similar. And there's these other points around mid to early November, the week before Black Friday or the week of Black Friday, as well as then after Cyber Monday, uh, around shipping cutoffs and, um, the sort of like holiday gift buying season, where in the conversion rate data we can see there's just so much opportunity to launch something, whether that be just taking your Black Friday sale and launching it on the Monday instead of the Friday, or launch an additional sale that isn't as good of an offer as it is on Black Friday and Cyber Monday, but it takes advantage of, uh, the opportunity that, uh, we see in the conversion rate data, which is people are just...

[00:09:12] Garrett: They're ready to shop early around, uh, you know, off the top of my head, call it November 12th, uh, mid-month, you know, where there's this really the, the conversion rate increase starts to climb and you're not willing to, uh, you know, have an offer, something compelling at that time, the chances that a competitor is, is, is extremely high because people, you know, brands are, are getting, uh, you know, are sort of noticing the trend and obviously even major retailers as well are, are on sale like all of November also.

[00:09:47] Randall: So could it be fair to say that, uh, kind of the collective, it's like a mob mentality? Uh, everybody starts pulling these promotions forward, and it kind of moves the consumer into the mindset of, "Let's buy now." And if you're not kind of moving yourself into that, um, into those... Uh, uh, as people are moving into that, into that mindset, if you're not moving your brand in, uh, to be in good position to take advantage of that, that shift in mindset, you might miss out on revenue opportunities or profit opportunities?

[00:10:21] Garrett: Totally. Yeah. I, I think for me, I, you know, it's almost like the opposite of like when they zig, we zag, you know? Like I, I, I hesitate to just look at what other brands are doing and say we should do the same thing for most of my clients, 'cause I, I don't think that's always the best strategy or to just copy what the big brands are doing.

[00:10:44] Garrett: Um, but I, I do think this is a specific scenario where it-- if you're not willing to do something compelling, it doesn't have to be a sale, but most people are running sales at that time, or it doesn't have to be a site-wide sale, right? It could be strategic. It can be on specific inventory that you have excess of or is better margin or, you know, it could be gift with purchase.

[00:11:08] Garrett: Whatever the case is, there's so many ways to be strategic about an offer that isn't just, uh, a site-wide discount on, on your best-selling product or a, a product that doesn't really actually have the margin to be able to be on sale for that long of a time. But, um, yeah, I think, I think the point is like people are ready to buy things at that time, and if they're not gonna buy it from you, they're gonna buy it from someone else who has a more compelling offer.

[00:11:36] Garrett: And then your chance to get that new customer or get that margin from an existing customer is... has sort of diminished, right? Because there's a, a finite amount of, of purchases or, or money that they're, they're willing to spend that, that holiday season.

[00:11:51] Randall: Yeah, right on. Uh, com- completely understand. I, I saw a text message in July that said, uh, uh, "Christmas in July is here. Take advantage of our Black Fri- Friday deals now." And I said, "What a slippery slope this is." Uh, and, uh, I-- but I get it. I, I completely understand because, uh, for, for the reasons that you outlined, a majority of the revenue or e- at least half of the revenue is, is flowing in during this time, and, uh, when, when it's time to eat, it's time to eat.

[00:12:22] Randall: Uh, I lived it. I get it. I, uh, I completely understand. Okay. So,

[00:12:28] Garrett: Yeah. What I, what I would add, sorry to interrupt. What I would add is like, uh, you know, the-- that's the sort of like there's a, there's a good, a good way to do it and a bad way to do it, or a strategic way to do it and a, and not a strategic way to do it, right? So what, what I always try to do is like, I think the Christmas in July example is a good one, where it's like, okay, are you just gonna launch a 25% off site-wide sale and call it Christmas in July like every other brand is doing?

[00:12:55] Garrett: Like, that's probably not actually maximizing the impact of what you could do if you were to just think about, okay, the point is people are, people are shopping. There's this sort of new trend. Maybe it's around Prime Day, maybe it's whatever it is, Christmas in July, right? Around 4th of July or around that time.

[00:13:16] Garrett: Like what's the thing that is relevant to our brand or product or our community, uh, of people who engage with our brand or product, and how can we tell like some sort of compelling marketing story with a strong offer at that point in time and have it be a lot, uh, more, more interesting and compelling than just a site-wide discount Christmas in July, right?

[00:13:42] Garrett: So I think that's obviously the easiest way to do it. Um, maybe that, that's all that's possible, but I, I think there's also ways to be, again, more strategic and, um, uh, just think about it relative to your brand or product, uh, a little bit, uh, more in depth

[00:14:00] Randall: And so I'm, I'm new to CTC. Uh, I've hired agencies. Do, do-- I get on a call with Garrett, and Garrett says... It's h- it's hard to live in this nuance of like zooming in, then zooming out, zooming in, then zooming out, and like we got, we gotta sprinkle in a promotional thing here. We gotta pull this forward. We ha- we, we have to win the day, but also we don't wanna lose the business for the year or, you know, for the decade or for the five years.

[00:14:26] Randall: So, uh, let, let's just say theoretically I'm, I'm working with you from a brand side. Um, are you, are you helping me like come up with that strategy based on my, my inventory position? Or are you kind of like listening to, listening to what I'm saying and coming up with the, the best game plan on a high level, then coming in at a really close level?

[00:14:49] Randall: Or are you kinda just taking my direction and just running with it?

[00:14:53] Garrett: Totally. Yeah, I think there's always a sort of, you know, I guess push and pull collaboration aspect to it, for sure. Um, and I think the more that we can, uh, as, as a partner to our clients, you know, sort of provide the macro data that they don't have access to by saying, "Here's what's been the most impactful across our por- portfolio of brands.

[00:15:19] Garrett: Here's what the brands that are winning are doing. Here's what we think that could look like for your business." And then sort of go from there based on exactly what you're saying, which is like, okay, we get that we can't just always be on sale, right? Whether because long term from a brand perspective, leadership is not comfortable with doing that, or the unit economics don't actually support running a 30% off site-wide sale on some of our products.

[00:15:47] Garrett: So, okay, here are the things that are working from CTC's perspective. How can we design, create strategies for client A based on exactly, you know, inventory positions, actual unit economics of specific products, um, and the brand's appetite for, um, for different things at different points in time, I guess.

[00:16:13] Garrett: So yeah, that, that's certainly something that we're bringing to the table in the sort of like, yeah, hey, quarterly, monthly planning flow. And then, yeah, it's very rare that, hey, it's just we recommend something, we run with it. You know, there's always gonna be a sort of collaborative, uh, yeah, again, like I said, kind of push and pull between the brand's priorities, what we think will perform the best, and aligning, aligning the two things, I guess, ultimately with, with their business objective and, uh, other priorities that th- they might have.

[00:16:48] Randall: Yeah. What, what I'm finding interesting is, uh, I, I can deep dive into Slack and I can say, "Hey, when this is happening with another brand, what, what did the conversation look like?" And then tie that back to Statlas, use our Statlas MCP and see how it showed up in the data. Um, hey Corey, am I... Me being in this wind tunnel right now, is this, uh, is this, uh, problematic?

[00:17:15] Randall: Okay. Um, and, and so, uh, I'm assuming that when a brand ap- approaches you and says, "Hey, here's the lay of the land," not only can you lean into, one, the eight years of you being at CTC, two, just a, uh, just a collection of people that are on the front lines every day, three, Slack history, four, Statlas history, um, and you're able to just pull in all this different parts of just information that are n- that's number-based, language-based, uh, and you're, you're able to come up with some sort of game plan that maybe, uh, other people might not be able to put their finger on when they're just so close to their own problem.

[00:17:56] Randall: Um, I know, I know I l- I've lived that, where, like, you stare at the same issue for, for way too long, and you're never gonna solve it. You, you do need a second, second opinion.

[00:18:07] Garrett: Right

[00:18:08] Randall: okay. So, uh, so I, um, I'm looking at Q4. I, I say, okay, I'm a brand owner. I- I'm, I'm looking at Q4. We're, uh, in September right now, maybe approaching the, the end of September.

[00:18:22] Randall: What is it that you feel like, uh, if we're looking at this from a high impact but minimal effort, or maybe even a lot of effort, but there's still gonna be a high impact, what should I-- If I'm, if I'm, uh, if I'm doing $20 million a year and I'm looking at my Q4, what should I be doing right now? What should I be looking at?

[00:18:41] Randall: What, w- Give me something tactical that I could be doing right now.

[00:18:44] Garrett: Yep. Yeah, totally. Um, I think there, there's a few, like, big buckets I would say that I sort of have thought about recently in terms of, you know, call it Q3 plus October because I think, you know, October is Q4, but really when we say Q4, we're really probably talking November and December. So I think the lead up to November and December, these like sort of big buckets of, uh, if brands are able to do them well, November and December typically end up being very successful.

[00:19:18] Garrett: Or if brands don't do these things in July, August, September, October, then, uh, achieving November and December targets, uh, becomes, uh, really much harder and less and less likely, um, if they don't do them. So I think, yeah, I guess I can, I can just sort of go through these buckets that I have in mind and then maybe we can, we can zoom in on specific ones if that sounds good.

[00:19:42] Garrett: So one is like having a large acquisition moment, and I think there is still time from this or for this before, uh, Black Friday is like one of the biggest high leverage, uh, things that a brand can have in September and October. What, what we historically see, this is like maybe the most common thing that I've seen in e-commerce in the last eight years, is that the short-term LTV of the October cohort of new customers is the highest of the year for 99% of the brands that, that I've ever worked with, potentially 100%.

[00:20:18] Garrett: So the, the new customers you acquire in October are more valuable in a 60-day window than any other cohort because you acquire them right before the month before Black Friday. It's a fresh new customer who then you're gonna have the biggest sale of the year, um, 30 to 60 days later and, and they're ready to, to buy again in that time.

[00:20:39] Garrett: So whether it's in September, October, or early November, I think the, the point is still the same. If you're able to create a really large new customer acquisition moment in September, October, or early November, where you can really fuel new customers and sort of have this massive spike in new customer acquisition, um, before Black Friday, it leads to a really, really big increase in returning customer revenue during Black Friday and Cyber Monday because that most recent cohort of new customers are the ones who are, who are, uh...

[00:21:18] Garrett: their short-term LTV is so high. So massive new customer acquisition moment in, in, uh, September or October ideally. Some, some brands I work with do like an early November where it's not quite like an, uh, an early Black Friday sale. Like Born Primitive, for example, who we talk about a lot, they have Veterans Day, which is around like November ele- 11th.

[00:21:41] Garrett: Um, and that is a huge new customer acquisition moment for them every year. Um, it's not promotional, uh, most of the time. It's like a give back related. Uh, they pay off ve- uh, veteran debt. Um, and it's this huge surge in new customer acquisition literally two weeks before Black Friday. Um, and it just, it leads to so much returning customer revenue two to three weeks later that, um, not having something like that, uh, makes it really, really challenging and really limits what you can do on, on Black Friday and Cyber Monday.

[00:22:11] Garrett: Um, because a lot of the time, so much of the revenue expectation and the target revenue and contribution margin during Black Friday is gonna come from returning customers. And if you're not, if you're not sort of fueling the new customer file, uh, the two months before that, it's just harder and harder to hit it, right?

[00:22:32] Garrett: Because more of your customers are lapsed or at risk of lapsing rather than having a, a really large fresh pool of, of new customers. Um-

[00:22:41] Randall: what I, what I think I he- I'm hearing you say is go for the double dip, really get zoomed in on the 60 to 90-day window of what is Q4, and go hard as you can to acquire customers before that big spike comes so you can just double dip and just bring them back when, when that big spike shows up.

[00:23:00] Garrett: 100%, yeah. Have some sort of spike in ideally s- October, you know, call it September through early, like first week of November in specifically new customer acquisition. What we don't wanna do is like have this big sale moment that just squeezes the sponge too much and doesn't actually lead to new customer revenue increasing because then all we did was like tap our existing customer file early and then come Black Friday, the same people aren't-- might not be ready to, to buy again on Black Friday.

[00:23:32] Garrett: So super specifically a new customer acquisition moment. Like a lot of brands, uh, do sweepstakes or giveaways around this time. Like that's probably the most common thing that I've seen, which is like some sort of massive sweepstakes in September or October to really incentivize people to buy at that point in time so they can be entered into the sweepstakes to possibly win, you know, X, Y, or, or Z thing from whatever the brand is.

[00:24:01] Randall: Yeah, and most ideally, uh, after you get that initial spike and then you're going into that, that big, big spike, most ideally you have new product drops as well. I know that's something that CTC does not control, but if you can iterate product, um, and those same people, you can bring them back, um, based on this iterated product, uh, or even an, an innovation of a product, um, having new product releases right, right then and there is, uh, definitely a,

[00:24:30] Garrett: For sure. Yep.

[00:24:31] Randall: of a golden nugget.

[00:24:32] Garrett: Yeah. And, you know, that, that could, that could be, and oftentimes it is one of the, the sort of most impactful acquisition strategies is a, you know, a sort of strong product or category launch, uh, which, you know, also the hardest to pull off and the most goes into it and the most resource goes into it.

[00:24:51] Garrett: So yeah, a, a, a strong product or category launch in September, October, uh, I've seen be a really, really strong or really impactful, uh, sort of pre-Black Friday acquisition, uh, moment

[00:25:07] Randall: And maybe this is a little bit more of a difficult question. I know you had, you said you had a couple buckets here, but like, like, uh, that's what people should maybe consider doing. What should people consider not doing? Like, where, where, where do you see mistakes made in, in

[00:25:21] Garrett: I think there's a couple things. One is like I sort of hinted, uh, hinted at it, which is like they squeeze the sponge, we call it, which is basically just like really pulling revenue forward and just like pulling too much revenue from your returning customer file pre-Black Friday, and you're not refilling the sponge with new customers or giving those returning customers enough of a reason to come back around Black Friday and holiday again.

[00:25:49] Garrett: Um, and so i-if there is this big moment of like, "Hey, we-we're pressured. We need to hit a revenue target in September," right? Or maybe it's October and like maybe the gut knee-jerk reaction, most impactful, lowest lift thing to do is add a site-wide sale or some sort of promo to the calendar, um, and that, you know, gets sent out to the whole list or whatever the case is.

[00:26:15] Garrett: And so, okay, there's pressure to hit this number. We hit-- we end up hitting the number because we added this promotional moment, but we didn't do the thing where we focused on new customer acquisition specifically. All we really did was like really, truly pull revenue forward, not in the way that we talked about earlier around Black Friday, where sure, we're pulling revenue forward, but we're also adding incremental revenue, uh, because we know people are ready to shop at different points in the month.

[00:26:44] Garrett: Uh, versus, yeah, like let's hit September, October. We, you know, have a strong offer, goes to everyone, including existing customers. And then by the time Black Friday comes around, we maybe don't have something more compelling than that or that, that September-October moment impacted our ability to then also hit our, our November goals.

[00:27:05] Garrett: Um, and then I would say the other thing too is like, this is honestly probably the most common, which it... there's so much more that goes into it, but I think...

[00:27:15] Randall: Garrett, let me say one thing about what

[00:27:17] Garrett: Yeah. Yeah.

[00:27:17] Randall: be-because, uh, because I've, I, I've lived this where I, I, I say to myself, "Okay, do I do f- do I do 30% off in, in, in the middle of October or do I wait another month to, uh, for the, for the calendar to turn over and when the calendar turns over, uh, is the conversion rate gonna go up and I'm actually gonna, I'm gonna get more contribution margin from these, from these customers?"

[00:27:40] Randall: And, and so like y- this shouldn't be theoretical, you know? Obviously things go up and down and things change and you, and you change the plan, but like this shouldn't be theoretical. Th-this should be something that should actually be planned. And I think that's, I, I think that's the, the point here is like just don't come up with discounts in the middle of October because you wanna pull them forward.

[00:28:01] Randall: Have a plan of what that actually looks like moving forward

[00:28:04] Garrett: Totally. Yeah. Yeah, I, I agree for sure. Um, and I, I would say what happens is really truly what's, what brands are experiencing in that moment is their new customer acquisition probably isn't as strong as it needs to be because they're really tough months, you know? Like July through October, um, you know, post Fourth of July, post Labor Day, obviously, which we just experienced, like there's really not a lot...

[00:28:32] Garrett: Post back to school, like there's really not a lot of these super obvious low-hanging fruit, uh, marketing new customer acquisition moments that just exist on the calendar. And so I think what's most often probably happening in those moments is they're not actually hitting the new customer acquisition targets that they need to hit their goal.

[00:28:55] Garrett: And so the easiest thing to do is just, okay, let's offer a discount that just ends up squeezing the sponge, and then really the underlying issue was, well, our acquisition wasn't where it needed to be to, one, hit our Q3/October goal, and then two, to support what our goals are on Black Friday, uh, and in December.

[00:29:15] Garrett: Um, so yeah, I 100% agree.

[00:29:21] Garrett: And yeah, I think that's sort of connected to m- to one of my other points of like what people do or don't do that I, that I consistently see, which is I think like, I think people are very comfortable, and this is like I think where we come in really effectively a lot of the time with the way that we do things with Statlas and daily targets and managing to our plan.

[00:29:43] Garrett: So sort of, uh, um, clearly, I guess, um, is like people are really comfortable or can be really comfortable sort of missing target and changing the plan July through October, right? Which is like, "Oh, the goal was too aggressive. Let's just put more of a, put higher, uh, higher expectation on November and December.

[00:30:07] Garrett: We'll get, we'll get it back in Black Friday." You know? Like that's the time of the year when the actual opportunity exists. Like let's sort of kick the can down the road, to use a cliché, so to speak. Um, and so I think like- That's the easy thing to do, right? Like, okay, July, August, September, October, like, let's just change the plan.

[00:30:30] Garrett: Let's put a higher revenue expectation on November and December when really, like, those months are so critical to November and December going according to plan that, uh, the intensity or the urgency rather should, should really be there, uh, to change the plan in a way, especially in those earlier months, July, August, September, where we have to do whatever we can to hit specifically, especially the new customer acquisition targets that are gonna allow us to hit our, our Black Friday and, and Q4 targets.

[00:31:07] Garrett: Um, that's probably like one of the most other most common things I've seen, which is like I-- it's super rare to go, "Hey, we just struggled for October s- or August, September, and October. We didn't hit our plan. New customer acquisition isn't where we needed it to be, but things are gonna just do a complete 180 in November and December.

[00:31:30] Garrett: We're gonna exceed our p- uh, original plan by, you know, we're gonna close the entire gap from the last three months." Extremely rare to see that happen. Um, I think it's a sort of early indicator that, okay, if we're missing plan now and not filling the sponge, not doing all the things that are gonna support our plan later, like the idea that we're just gonna have a bigger November and December is, is typically not actually how it plays out.

[00:31:59] Randall: And I think it, I think it's mission critical to have people in your corner that will have that real conversation with you as well. I, I've lived, uh, a lie for a long time, and somebody on the ad, on the ad buying side eventually looked me in the eyes and said, "Hey, man, have you ever thought about your numbers just don't work like this?"

[00:32:18] Randall: And I'm like, "Oh, no, no." I, I've just always kind of just put the blame on everybody that they can't figure it out. But sometimes, yeah, you, you get two or three months into, uh, H2, the second half, and you go, you go, "Well, things aren't looking good here. Let's reforecast this, and let's actually make the most out of what we can actually make the most out of."

[00:32:38] Randall: And so I think that's, I think that's fantastic advice, and I think it's, I think it's critical that you don't necessarily have yes people around you all the time. Um, and, uh, you need a little bit of the head in the sky, but also you need feet on the ground, so. Um, okay. So I think, I think all this is super valuable, and I think that, uh, I think it makes, makes a ton of sense of what you're saying.

[00:33:00] Randall: Um, and, uh, I think that, uh, obviously you've seen a lot of cycles here, 2018 through, through now, and that's just through CTC. Here's my final question for you. What season of e-commerce are we in, and, uh, uh, what, what, what's the, what's the lay of the land and who's gonna survive for the next five years?

[00:33:21] Garrett: Oh, gosh. I wasn't, I wasn't prepared to be put on the, uh, put on the spot like that. Um Yeah, I, God, it's tough. I feel like, um Things have, are just changing so quickly, and I, I struggle with this all the time, where like a lot of times in my life and, you know, in e-commerce, like I, I've done things in such a specific way that I, you know, a lot of them have worked, and so I wanna continue to do them in that way.

[00:33:56] Garrett: Like, and, um, things are just changing so quickly and I, I just think it's the people who are willing to go to the new thing the fastest and really place like the smartest bets on the new things as quickly as possible and like have, have a sort of tolerance for risk, I guess. You know? Some of them aren't gonna work, some of them are gonna work.

[00:34:26] Garrett: It's like the people in whatever, 2015 to 2017 who were the first, you know, the sort of Facebook ads arbitrage. Like if you were in that, uh, cohort, if you will, of brands, like the value that was... came out of being early to, to that was massive. And I think, um, you know, whether it's people who are early on TikTok Shop or people who are early on, um, yeah, I mean, whatever the case might be, I just think, I think we're in the like that's the era and that's not a concise, uh, a concise or buzzy marketing term for the era, but that's sort of what I've felt recently.

[00:35:10] Randall: Kind of makes sense. Stay dynamic. The ones that are most dynamic are gonna be the ones that win.

[00:35:14] Garrett: Totally. I think the brands that I've seen do the best in the last three years especially, a lot of their businesses look completely different right now than they did three years ago. And the brands that are-- have struggled or have had the hardest time, the businesses more or less look the same than they did three years ago.

[00:35:32] Garrett: And I think that's just gonna become more and more important.

[00:35:36] Randall: Amen to that. I, I completely agree with you. Well, Garrett, happy eight years, uh, at CTC. Thanks, thanks for this. And, uh, if anybody's interested in the machine where we take your Q4 plan, put it through our system, and tell you where you're soft and where you're strong, uh, I'm sure there'll be a link somewhere or there, uh, uh, somewhere on this video.

[00:36:00] Randall: Go ahead and click it and let us, uh, let us get our, our teeth sunk into it. Garrett, congrats. Congrats on eight

[00:36:06] Garrett: assumptions. See if we're, uh, if we're actually set up to, to hit the plan or not

[00:36:12] Randall: Love it. All right. See you later.

[00:36:15] Garrett: Awesome. Thanks, Randall

[00:36:17] Randall: Yeah. See you, man