Q1 2026 Data: Meta Spend Up 25%, ROAS Only Down 3%

Total revenue across the DTC Index is up 13.6% year over year. More of it is coming from returning customers than new customers. The platforms are more elastic than they were a year ago.

Those are the headlines from Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025. But the details underneath them tell a much more interesting story about where ecommerce is heading.

Steve Rekuc, CTC's Director of Data, joined Richard Gaffin to break down the full year-over-year data from the DTC Index. Here's what the numbers show across revenue, ad spend, platform efficiency, and consumer confidence.

The Big Picture: Revenue Up 13.6%, Driven by Returning Customers

Total revenue across the portfolio increased 13.6% in Q1 2026 vs Q1 2025. But the growth isn't evenly split between new and returning customers.

Returning customer revenue is growing faster than new customer revenue year over year. That's expected as brands mature: your existing customer file grows, and if your product invites repeat purchase (fashion, beauty, supplements, food and beverage), returning revenue should make up a bigger share over time.

New customer revenue is still growing, but the stronger returning revenue performance is the bigger driver of total growth. That's a sign of healthier businesses: these brands are retaining the customers they acquired last year.

Meta: Spend Up 25%, ROAS Only Down 3%

This is the headline number from Q1.

Meta spend across the portfolio increased 25.28% year over year. ROAS only degraded 3%.

That's not what you'd normally expect. A 25% jump in spend should produce a much steeper efficiency decline. The fact that ROAS only fell 3% tells us the platform has become significantly more elastic. You can push harder without hitting the typical efficiency cliff.

Meta spend up 25%. ROAS only down 3%. The platform is more elastic than it was a year ago.

What's driving this? Two things:

First, Meta's AI-driven ad delivery is getting better. CPMs are up, but click-through rates have improved consistently. The platform is showing ads to better-qualified consumers. If you were running the same campaigns in 2026 that you ran in 2025, you'd get a better result.

Second, agency-level improvements matter too. Better creative, better incrementality testing (pushing into accounts where incrementality exceeds the 120% benchmark, pulling back where it doesn't), and better utilization of Meta's tools all contribute to the efficiency gains in this data set.

Google: Spend Up, ROAS Up. That Almost Never Happens.

Google ROAS increased 12% year over year despite a 3.65% increase in spend.

More spend. Better efficiency. That's unusual in any channel, but especially in Google where the auction dynamics are well-established. The same underlying trend applies here: the platform is getting better at delivery, and advertisers who structure campaigns well are being rewarded.

Total Ad Spend and aMER

Total ad spend is up year over year across the portfolio, consistent with the individual platform increases on Meta and Google.

The aMER (Acquisition Market Efficiency Ratio) tracks how efficiently that total spend converts to new customer revenue. The 2026 line is tracking ahead of 2025 so far, which is another confirmation of the elasticity story: brands are spending more and getting comparable or better efficiency.

Consumer Confidence: Better Than Last Year, With a March Dip

The other big story from Q1 is in consumer sentiment.

The DTC Index includes the DTCCI (DTC Consumer Confidence Index), a composite metric built from a post-purchase consumer survey conducted in partnership with No Commerce. Five questions cover economic outlook, future purchase intent, and spending vs. saving preferences.

Two metrics matter most: future purchase sentiment and economic sentiment.

Future purchase sentiment has been consistently better in 2026 than 2025. There was a spike of optimism in early March. Then conflict in the Middle East, rising oil prices, and stock market volatility pulled sentiment down toward the end of March. The last few weeks have shown recovery as those concerns ease.

Here's a counterintuitive insight from Steve: last January, economic optimism hit an all-time high at the same time future purchase sentiment hit an all-time low. Consumers were excited about the economy but not ready to spend. Part of that was a Black Friday / Cyber Monday hangover from a strong holiday 2024, and part was a "wait and see" mentality: they expected the economy to improve and wanted to wait for it.

When consumers say "the economy will be great," they don't always mean "I'm going to spend right now." The DTCCI combines both signals to predict actual spending elasticity.

About the Data Set

The DTC Index pulls from 200-300 stores in the CTC portfolio through Statlas. Every store in the data set has at least two years of consistent revenue data and consistent ad spend across Meta and Google. This isn't survey data or a sample of 10 brands. It's aggregate performance data from real ad accounts spending real money.

Steve publishes the data weekly and monthly through the DTC Index, a monthly newsletter in partnership with No Commerce, and the DTCCI at dtcci.co.

What This Means for Your Brand

The environment for ecommerce growth is better than it was a year ago. The platforms are more elastic. Consumer confidence is trending positive. Revenue is growing across the portfolio.

• Test your spend ceiling on Meta. A 25% spend increase with 3% ROAS degradation means there's likely headroom in your account you haven't explored.
• Audit your Google setup. A 12% ROAS improvement suggests the algorithm is rewarding better-structured campaigns and feeds. Make sure you're capturing that.
• Use consumer confidence as a leading indicator. The DTCCI predicts spending power before it shows up in your dashboard. Follow it at dtcci.co.
• Invest in retention. The strongest revenue growth is coming from returning customers. If you're not investing in your existing customer file, you're leaving the easiest revenue on the table.

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