The Coronavirus outbreak (COVID-19) has descended. And while the return to public places is underway, questions remain.
To help your businesses navigate these uncertain times, we’ve put together this repository of the latest news, industry data, and ecommerce trends.
In addition, we’ve assembled a tactical guide with 10 examples from ecommerce brands succeeding amidst the challenges. Those strategies extend far beyond the initial boon of hand sanitizer, face masks, and disinfectant.
Here, we’ll be posting weekly updates within three sections:
Summary for the week of November 2-8:
Thankfully, early holiday shoppers have lifted ROAS, propelling Oct.’s “hope slope” into an unseasonably efficient first week of Nov.
Although nobody can predict the future, the larger context should …
First, level-set what otherwise feels like an astronomical surge in the cost to advertise (it’s not).
Second, solidify holiday ecommerce planning built around previous years’ patterns — namely, driving traffic in early Nov. with two expectations:
Our own data and client strategies follow that pattern as does Connor MacDonald’s recent revelations, CMO of Ridge Wallets:
Here’s how understanding latent revenue helps us budget through the holidays.— Connor MacDonald (@couuor) November 3, 2020
Last year we ran well below our ROAS goal until the last 2 days of the month.
The revenue we captured from Black Friday lifted the entire month’s ROAS above our target. pic.twitter.com/W51heh4Lgo
Despite positive signs at the global level (particularly China’s mounting rebound), supply chain issues and product shortages swirl around online retailers.
In the US, recession language has shifted from “if” to “what shape?” Fears surrounding COVID-19 have swung the stock market and rocked mainstream retailers.
The good news is all sources report ecommerce fairing far better as consumers turn to online shopping in both the short-term and the long.
But what exactly does that look like by the numbers? And how can it help you craft a strategy to not just survive … but thrive?
As an index, we’ve compiled data from ~$154M in ad spend from ecommerce brands at a minimum of $60k per year. All metrics have been standardized to one-day attribution.
For the last 28 days (year-over-year) …
Below is each metric’s daily average:
Categorical data merged from a host of sources shows both disparities as well as one overarching refrain …
Whether temporary gold rush or enduring step change, now is an unprecedented moment. Now is ecommerce’s time to act.
Pulling back to year-to-date YoY comparisons reveal:
Widening the scope from paid media to ecommerce at large, data from the US Census Bureau puts online’s share of retail for Q2 at 16.1% — up from 11.8% in Q1 and 11.3% in Q4 2019.
An increase of 4.8 percentage points for the first half of 2020 compared to 4.5 for the five previous years.
Moreover, while US ecommerce saw an average quarterly increase of 14.9% throughout 2019 (compared to 2018), Q2 2020’s increase was a staggering 44.5% YoY.
Perhaps most striking, ecommerce’s 16.1% US market share jumps to 26.4% when only “core retail” categories are taken into consideration.
With large-scale shipping concerns and Christmas cut-offs looming, we’ve reached out directly to a number of 3PLs.
None report interruptions in domestic service (last updated: Nov. 12, 6:00am PST). The links below will take you to each provider’s “Status” page:
✅ ShipHero, Promofill, and LeftBrain
While providers are still operational, we suggest reaching out directly. Work stoppages could significantly slow down delivery times and need to be communicated with customers sooner rather than later.
What 2019 foretold, 2020 fulfilled. Then, the world changed.
The impact of coronavirus has been so seismic that predictions surrounding ecommerce can’t exactly be faulted. Where many previously hailed slowing growth and the separation of low-end versus high-end, COVID-19 has given birth to a new category … defying expectations and divides.
es·sen·tial good, noun: a physical item required to sustain life
e-com·merce es·sen·tial, noun: a product deemed worthy of purchase amidst life-threatening conditions
This is not to undermine the gravity of the pandemic. Rather, it is to stress that for many businesses these times are a matter of survival — for themselves, their employees, and the families who depend on them.
Having worked through the big-picture numbers, let’s get practical …
10 online shopping tactics to become “essential” with examples, insights, and results:
To begin, the tactics, strategies, and offers that worked two weeks ago will not work today. Deep shifts in online shopping call for equally deep thinking at every stage of the funnel.
How can you reimagine yesterday’s creative to convert today in ads, emails, landing pages, header bars, pop-ups, and even at checkout?
Does the new normal demand discounting? What about addressing safety and shipping concerns? Should you explicitly mention the virus or use softer language around health and home?
As with all things, the answer is: it depends.
To establish a baseline, we examined 418 homepages from 2PM, Inc.’s DNVB Power List — a database that tracks companies based on “employment, growth, funding, and Internet Retailer’s annual ranking.”
Of those brands …
As added inspiration, we also took screenshots of 116 of the 142 sites currently discounting to represent a sample of the deal structures and positioning.
Like most online retailers, COVID-19 hit Bambu Earth hard. Comparing Mar. 1-10 to Mar. 11 onward, daily average revenue dropped 25%.
“We’d decided to reduce ad spend, fix customer acquisition over the longer term, and focus on profitability in the short,” explains Andrew Faris, CEO of 4x400 — Bambu Earth’s holding company. “That was the story, anyway, until 5:38pm last Tuesday.”
That’s when Bambu Earth’s Brand Manager, Kohlman Verheyen, and its founder, Amber Hawthorne, sent this email with the glaringly simple subject line: “Coronavirus Update. Please open.”
Filmed on Hawthorne iPhone and sent in four waves (based on subscriber engagement level), the message included lines like:
The email took fire: $33.8k in revenue on the back of a single “Watch Now” call to action.
High price point SKUs and those that thrive in social settings face acute challenges: e.g., fitness clothing, shoes and accessories, personal grooming, etc.
Could positioning your offer as a call to normalcy encourage the comfort of routines? What role should educating consumers about the benefits of luxury play? Is there a way to incentivize shoppers without undercutting value?
Supply’s single-edge razors clock in at ~3x-5x the industry’s usual price-point. In good times, it’s a challenge overcome by educational marketing.
In bad times, it’s a show stopper.
To cross the conversion gulf, Supply tested and iterated on multiple concepts. The winner? A free year of blades featured in stand-alone ads and integrated automatically within the cart:
After an initial 5.07 ROAS, the offer was combined with an educational landing page highlighting the free year of blades. At scale, it’s held strong with a blended ROAS of 3.02 across multiple ad creatives.
“We went from a year low in sales two weeks ago to having our best weekend since Cyber Monday,” says Supply founder, Patrick Coddou. “I almost hesitate to share that. There are so many operators struggling right now.“
“Not everybody will find opportunities. But everybody should be looking earnestly. They’re out there. Don’t give up.”
As for discounts, while maybe not a first-order strategy, where do you have margin to assuage thrifty buyers?
Could bundling or tiered-discounts help offset the cost by increasing AOV? Would buy-now, pay-later campaigns entice?
Alya Skin’s “Afterpay Day Slay” campaign brought together three price-sensitive elements: (1) a sitewide sale, (2) multiple bundles, and (3) installment plans.
During the event, the ads maintained an average of 2.22 ROAS on over $91k in spend.
Software-as-service platforms like Zoom, Slack, and Loom fit naturally into work-from-home environments. And they’ve reaped the rewards.
In what ways can you lean in as well? If you sell apparel, how can you leverage ecommerce fashion trends like Walmart’s macro-data on “tops over bottoms”? If you’re an outdoor product, how can you bring it inside or into a customer’s backyard?
And, how can you bring all that into your creative … to bring it to life?
The irony of candle-maker Homesick’s success is that with everyone stuck in the house, that only makes us miss home all the more.
Our real homes.
In response to that feeling, Homesick intensified its already strong position as a way to “connect with the people, places, and memories that matter most”:
In tandem with the ads, Homesick also released a short email sequence and landing page to capture momentum, automatically apply two specials, and message the moment:
Since the initiative went live, Homesick has reduced CAC from $19.65 to $13.17 and simultaneously increased:
Of course, the pressing question is: what if you don’t sell something “essential” in any sense of the word?
Are there ways to front-load your products as “at-home” adaptations? Can you create limited-run variants to fit the times?
What about family-friendly or kid-focused editions? Could you bundle best-selling SKUs as care packages? Have you considered collaborating either with more of-the-moment products and brands or joining forces with truly essential organizations?
“Within 24 hours,” says Brian Garofalow, VP of Marketing at Igloo, “it 4.6x’d YoY growth, 2.8x over projections.”
As an added touch, a number of Igloo’s Playmate coolers part of the donation collection are also family-friendly collaborations with Disney, Volkswagen, and more.
Together, those factors enabled the below ad sets to hit 3.61, 4.74, and 3.53 ROAS.
In the weeks that followed, Igloo continued to move fast: new collaborations emerged, each supported by advertising that iterated rapidly on both the creative and paid fronts:
“The trends say we shouldn’t be successful,” notes Garofalow. “But we’re growing faster than ever before. How? By collaborating with social causes and pivoting to new opportunities quickly.
“Common Thread Collective’s creativity, speed, and results have helped us increase sales 473% YTD and 796% YoY for the month of April.”
Out-of-home industries like music, sports, and food have been disproportionately affected by closures.
Could those groups not only be helped by ecommerce companies but enlisted as influencers and micro-influencers? Might that include not only marketing efforts but content production as well? Where is your customer base hurting … and how can you meet those needs for them and you?
Take Born Primitive’s “Back the Gyms Stimulus” as a shining example.
Wanting to do more than a mere work-out-from-home campaign, Bear Handlon — co-owner and CEO — decided to put the brand’s money where its heart is: a 50%-profit share with gyms across the country.
“The gym owner is the foundation of the entire community,” says Bear. “Our brand was born in this space, and without these gyms and their members, we might not have ever existed in the first place.”
Kicked off via email and organic social, Born Primitive spent conservatively on paid promotions at first … then, laid into ads across social and search:
When the dust settled, Born Primitive had not only rescued itself from an all-time sales low on March 16th but also achieved:
Doing well by doing good indeed.
Numerous retail enterprises have used the current climate to reinforce their brands and pull back on budgets. In fact, 81% of large organizations expect to cut ad costs “significantly” and ~50% of ecommerce businesses are either spending less or not spending at all.
Should you adjust your strategy likewise? Is “selling” during a crisis a recipe for backlash? Could money be better allocated building organic community? Is now the time to focus on brand over performance
Or … are those questions themselves fallacies?
Feminine health retailer Love Wellness has always gone strong on brand.
In recent years, its founder, Lo Bosworth, has graced a pantheon of mainstream publishers. Earlier in March, that PR commitment culminated in a rebrand unveiled in New York City’s Times Square:
As a testament to the continued power of brand-meets-performance, its current BOGO campaign relies on a straightforward offer.
However, instead of a product page, shoppers arrive on a landing page with a heartfelt video letter from Bosworth “during this moment” right at the top:
Only after the message does the offer re-emerge.
That savvy combination puts a face to the brand and builds audience equity. At the same time, it also scales to the tune of a 140% lift in ROAS compared to non-BOGO ads without reducing spend.
At the business level, Q1 2020 has seen Love Wellness grow its overall customer base 5X year-over-year, with more than 380% lift in first-time customers.
Already, the multiplication of channels presents two challenges. First, compounding results through a funnel that links demand generation with demand capture. Second, measuring your mix holistically (i.e., beyond myopic, single-channel attribution).
With social and search usage skyrocketing during quarantine, how best can you align them? Can organic followings be leveraged for more than just vanity metrics? What about post-purchase activities through rewards, referrals, and SMS?
More to the point … how should you measure these cross-channel efforts?
Launched a year and a half ago, Dorsal Bracelets began with a cause: removing one pound of trash from the ocean for every purchase. By Mar. of 2019, it’d earned a solid social following but sales were modest: ~$11k per month.
“I wanted to build a brand with streams of revenue that Facebook could fuel,” says founder Chad Ross, “but I didn’t want it to end there.”
Through the second half of 2019, Dorsal did exactly that: anchoring its ad budget on Facebook and extending into halo efforts on …
To measure its efforts, Dorsal uses a metric known as MER: marketing efficiency rating. In short, total sales divided by total advertising. “I’m so glad we took that route,” explains Ross.
“Last December was our biggest month ever. We crossed $100k for the first time. The biggest until March of 2020. We’ll end this month with an all-time high of $170k.”
“We’ve maintained our relevance, even in the face of the crisis, by being everywhere our customers turn.”
Don’t abandon your strategy because the climate has changed. Forge ahead by the numbers as long as the numbers are strong.
What type of content could you produce to better serve and engage your audience: videos, guides, tutorials, infographics, courses, etc.? Should you sell them, use them as list-building materials, or leverage them as incentives to nudge hesitant shoppers?
Is it wise to create educational coronavirus-related assets for non-paid distribution and discovery — e.g., emails, blogs, organic social, etc.?
Or, is it better to invest in support content that doesn’t name the issue directly?
As an organic expression, Tracksmith’s Culture Club highlights running-related books, movies, and podcasts though an Instagram Stories campaign:
Tracksmith’s founder, Matt Taylor, also released an open letter via social: “And so when things do normalize, let’s be ready to pick up right where we left off.”
“I don’t know about you,” Lee Glandorf, Tracksmith’s Communications Lead, told Cualate in an article about shifting strategies amidst COVID-19, “but sometimes, even though running is the nicest thing to do when you’re stuck at home, it’s nice to have a little something to get you motivated or excited to run. A reminder of why we run and a little inspiration.”
Summersalt’s Joycast is easily the supreme example of this strategy.
Managed via SMS, the program has already garnered mainstream media attention from the likes of Fast Company, Forbes, and others. What’s more, the brand has also updated its home page and featured collection with messaging to meet the moment:
Vanity products — for lack of a better term — depend heavily on social queues to drive buyers. That’s as true for Tesla and Ferrari as it is for Tom Ford and LVHM.
How can products that rely on social non-distancing still shine? Can that need be addressed through “show it off on social” threads, Stories, or live digital events?
Could these methods also fill the communal void by fostering relationships while at the same time encouraging UGC?
Custom sunglasses and goggles maker, Melon Optics, did this masterfully via an organic Instagram hashtag — #restingbeast — led by its head of marketing Ash Van Palmer.
“It took no effort, cost us nothing, got our community to feel involved and gave us content to post,” says James Pointer, Melon Optics’ founder. “In addition, it opened up a ton of DMs and got us engaging in conversation with our community directly.”
We’ve potentially entered an era of cheap clicks and low-conversions — tight-fisted visitors all too happy to window shop.
To leverage inexpensive traffic, what tests can you run: video watch times, homepage CTAs, value propositions, email pop-ups, quizzes, or landing pages? Maybe checkout as well as cart abandonment emails?
Equally important, how you can prepare now for a post-COVID-19 future?
As a model for walking that line, consider CROSSNET: a hybrid of four square and volleyball that’s typically played on the beach.
Since quarantine began, the brand has increased ad spend 2-3x. It’s also — as co-founder Chris Meade explained to Privy in a case study on thriving in uncertain times — “switched our sales approach from ‘BUY NOW’ to a message filled with optimism and that better days are ahead. People are looking forward to the summer, spending time with their friends and the world returning to normal.
As a result, sales have increased by +500%: “We had our best day in company history, five days in a row during the week of March 16th.”
For some of us, this will be a time when we grab market share previously dominated by enterprise retailers. We may see growth and opportunity like never before.
For others, we’ll be facing a day-to-day battle with cash flow … fighting hard to retain customers, remain profitable, and stay afloat.
We can’t change the current climate. What we can do is not hold back.
The winners will be those who peel back wallet-clasped fingers by removing every impediment to action while remaining sensitive to wider needs, causes, and realities. Constraints generate creative solutions, demanding data to inform business decisions and guide innovation.
These 10 brands offer clarity in the face of uncertainty. Proof that it’s possible to take control of your own realities amidst surrealities.
As of Mar. 13, all of Common Thread Collective will be working remotely.
Because the majority of our time with clients is already remote, just expect to see a few additional “screens” when you join any regularly scheduled meetings.
For your own organization, here are a few links to help you navigate:
With active members across a host of ecommerce groups — Ecommerce Fuel, Shopify Plus’ Facebook Community, LeanLuxe, and 2PM’s Polymathic — we’ll be paying attention to noticeable shifts or activity.
(Note: Many of these groups are closed, so we’ll only share anonymized commentary, tips, and links.)
Things are changing fast. We’re keeping a pulse on the best sources in the industry, distilling them, and delivering it to you as soon as it becomes available.
Sources and Links
4. Stackline (YoY) via Amazon, Walmart & Online Marketplaces
5. Common Thread Collective (MoM)
7. Adobe (MoM)
Aaron is the VP of Marketing at CTC. Previously the Editor in Chief of Shopify Plus, his content has appeared on Forbes, Mashable, Entrepreneur, Business Insider, The New York Times, and more. Connect with Aaron on Twitter or LinkedIn (especially if you want to talk about bunnies or #LetsGetRejected).